Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Apr 10, 2018 - 4:58 PM

Valid until

Apr 11, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

Heavy precipitation is falling as rain below treeline and snow in the alpine. Reactive storm slabs are building at upper elevations and natural loose wet avalanches are occurring at lower elevations. Its a good time to avoid avalanche terrain.

Regular season
Tuesday - April 10, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - April 11, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - April 12, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Heavy snow at upper elevations is building new, reactive storm slabs. Watch for new slabs in areas when the rain switches to snow. The snow will fall with strong southwest winds, so expect thicker slabs in lee features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Rising freezing levels and rain will rapidly weaken the snow surface. This is particularly the case for the north of the region, which hasn't seen as much rain or warming as the south. Avoid overhead exposure.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, it is raining, or the solar radiation is strong.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Avalanche Summary

We have received very little information on avalanche activity for this region. From the little we have heard, there were no new avalanches to report from Tuesday.

Forecast heavy precipitation should mean that the likelihood of triggering avalanches is on the rise.

We would very much appreciate it if you spend a moment to submit any observations you have to the Mountain Information Network here, even if it is just a photo. Thanks!

Snowpack Summary

Rain is now falling as snow at upper elevations building reactive storm slabs which sit over a predominant thick crust. It is difficult to predict where and when rain will switch to snow, but expect the transition to happen and by Wednesday and most precipitation will fall as snow above 1200 m.

At below treeline elevations, a spring snowpack exists. Rain has saturated and weakened the upper snowpack. Forecast rain will continue this trend. The mid and lower snowpack are strong.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Heavy precipitation near 30 mm. Snow above 1200 m and rain below. Ridgetop wind strong from the southwest and freezing levels near 1200m.

Thursday: Cloudy with 5-10 cm. Ridgetop wind strong from the South and freezing levels dropping to 900 m.

Friday: Yet another blast of winter up high! Heavy precipitation up to 60 mm with snow above 1500 m and rain below. Ridgetop wind continue to be strong from the South and freezing levels near 1500 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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