Avalanche Forecast
Cariboos
A rapidly rising freezing level, rain, and strong warm wind are expected to initiate large natural avalanches that could run into areas we normally think of as "safe" in the valley bottom. Travel in or below avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid all avalanche terrain, especially during periods of rain and direct sun.
- Avoid exposure to solar aspects overhead, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
- Loose wet avalanches in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in very large avalanches.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Buried persistent weak layers 60 to 100 cm below the surface may roar back to life Tuesday as rain, strong warm wind, and a rapidly rising freezing level destabilize the upper snowpack. Cornice failure is also expected to be widespread Tuesday.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Back off slopes as they become moist or wet.
- Very large and destructive avalanches could reach valley bottom.
- Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger persistent slab avalanches.
Avalanche Summary
Natural loose wet avalanches to size 2 were widespread on all aspects Sunday. This activity is expected to intensify Tuesday.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 10 cm of new snow fell Saturday with light variable wind. This snow rests on crust that is present on all aspects below 2000 m, and extends up to about 2500 m on south facing aspects. The storm snow be sitting on surface hoar on polar aspects (north and east) at upper elevations.
The main concern is the mid-March Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) which is now 60 to 100 cm below the surface. This layer is composed of a crust on all aspects at low elevations. At upper elevations the layer presents as a crust on solar aspects (those that face south and west) and buried surface hoar on polar aspects. The reactivity of this interface has been steadily decreasing and while the likelihood of triggering a deeper persistent slab avalanche is lowering, the consequence of doing so remains high. Solar aspects are expected to be the most suspect as the freezing level begins to rise Tuesday and Wednesday.
Deeper persistent weak layers from January and December are still being reported by professional observers, but are generally considered dormant.
Weather Forecast
Tuesday delivers a significant warm up to the Cariboos, precipitation is expected to fall as rain as high as 2000 m, possibly even 2500 m. Wednesday is ever so slightly cooler and then we should return to a more seasonal temperature regime on Thursday.
TUESDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level beginning around 1200 m, may rise as high as 2500 m, moderate to strong southwest wind, 3 to 5 mm of precipitation possible.
WEDNESDAY: Few clouds in the morning building to scattered cloud cover in the afternoon, freezing level beginning around 1500 m rising to about 2000 m, light west/southwest wind, trace of precipitation possible.
THURSDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level beginning around 500 m rising to about 1500 m, light variable wind, 2 to 4 mm of precipitation possible.
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Rain and very warm temperatures will be a bit of a shock for our upper snowpack, especially at upper elevations. This warm up will likely initiate a round of large loose wet and wet slab avalanches on all aspects to mountain top.