Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Apr 8, 2018 - 4:11 PM

Valid until

Apr 9, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

New snow and rising freezing levels means elevated avalanche danger for the next few days. Choose conservative terrain and be especially wary of overhead hazards as the day warms or the sun shines.

Regular season
Sunday - April 8, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - April 9, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - April 10, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and wind have formed storm slabs at all elevations. Expect these slabs to be touchy especially as freezing levels begin to rise. Watch for moist or wet snow releases on sunny slope and at lower elevations; these could trigger deeper slabs.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Use caution in wind-loaded, lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow will form touchy slabs.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Cornices are reported to be large and may become weak with rising freezing levels and sun exposure.  A cornice failure has the potential to trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
  • Minimize exposure to overhead hazard from cornices.

Avalanche Summary

There were no reported of avalanches in the region following Saturday's storm, however near Fernie; widespread storm slab and loose wet avalanche activity up to size 2.5 was reported on Sunday. The new snow was reactive to skier and explosive triggers on all aspects above 1400 m. And one natural size 2.5 was reported on an easterly aspect at 1550 m.

On Friday both natural and easily skier-triggered wind slab releases up to size 1.5 were reported in the southern part of the region, while several loose dry avalanches were reported in the Crowsnest Pass area. Read recent MIN report here.

Thursday in the Elkford area, recent small (size 1) loose/dry avalanches were reported on northerly aspects while loose/wet were observed on solar aspects. In the southeast corner of the region skier-triggered loose/dry avalanches were reported to be running far on a recently buried crust.

Snowpack Summary

With about 20 cm on new snow on Sunday morning, 20-40 cm of snow sits above a variety of crusts on all but high north aspects. Northern parts of the region have less new snow than southern parts. Wind has formed hard slabs in lee features, and in some cases the snow may be poorly bonded to the crusts.

Multiple crusts exist within the top 100 cm of the snowpack. Some parts of the region may have a surface hoar layer roughly 60 cm deep on north aspects at treeline.

A well settled midpack sits above sugary facets in many parts of the region, especially thin snowpack areas.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Ridge wind moderate to strong, west. Alpine temperature near -2. Freezing level 1000 m.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind moderate to strong, west. Alpine temperature near +3. Freezing level 2200 m.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Ridge wind moderate to strong, southwest. Alpine temperature near +4. Freezing level 2600 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind moderate to strong, west. Alpine temperature near 0. Freezing level 2000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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