Avalanche Forecast
Cariboos
A buried persistent weak layer may roar back to life over the next few days as the freezing level rises and the sun comes out. South facing slopes are especially suspect and are best avoided at this time.
Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use caution around sheltered steep or convex slopes where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Minimize exposure to steep planar south-facing slopes - especially if they see sunshine.
- Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.
Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
A few cm of new snow is expected Saturday night with moderate west/southwest wind which may form fresh shallow slabs immediately lee of ridge crest. If the sun breaks through the clouds Sunday it may initiate natural avalanche activity.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be careful with wind loaded pockets near ridge crests and roll-overs.
- Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the sun is out.
- Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.
Avalanche Summary
Only small loose dry avalanches (sluffing) to size 1 were reported from east facing aspects around treeline on Friday.
Reported avalanche activity on Thursday was limited to a size 2 natural cornice failure on a southeast facing slope at 2900 m.
On Wednesday a natural size 3 cornice failure was observed on an unknown aspect, the cornice did not initiate any other avalanche activity. Small loose dry sluffing was also observed on south facing aspects between 1500 and 2100 m suggesting that the cool temperatures are preserving cold snow, even on southerly aspects.
Snowpack Summary
Warming temperatures and time have helped to settle the upper snowpack and have likely formed a weak surface crust on all aspects below about 1800 m. This crust likely extends higher on south facing slopes. On north facing slopes above 2000 m, temperatures have remained cold and the snowpack is still quite "winter-like."
The main concern is the mid-March Persistent Weak Layer (PWL), which is now 60 to 100 cm below the surface. This layer is composed of a crust on all aspects at low elevations. At upper elevations the layer presents as a crust on solar aspects (those that face south and west) and buried surface hoar on polar aspects (those that face north and east). The reactivity of this interface has been steadily decreasing and while the likelihood of triggering a deeper persistent slab avalanche is lowering, the consequence of doing so remains high. Solar aspects are expected to be the most suspect as the freezing level begins to rise over the next few days.
Deeper persistent weak layers from January and December are still being reported by professional observers, but are generally considered dormant.
Weather Forecast
Continued snowfall is expected Saturday night as an unstable air mass fuels convective precipitation. A ridge is expected to build offshore Sunday allowing the entire province to dry out. A more spring-like pattern begins to take shape on Monday with freezing levels creeping towards 2000 m by Tuesday.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast, freezing level around 500 m, light to moderate west/southwest wind, 4 to 10 cm of snow possible.
SUNDAY: Overcast, freezing level beginning near valley bottom rising to about 2000 m, light to moderate northwest wind, 1 to 2 cm of snow possible.
MONDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level beginning around 1000 m rising to about 2100 m, light west/southwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.
TUESDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level holding around 2000 m, moderate to strong southerly wind, trace of precipitation possible.
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A buried persistent weak layer may roar back to life over the next few days as the freezing level rises and the sun makes an appearance. South facing slopes are especially suspect and are best avoided at this time.