Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Apr 7, 2018 - 3:58 PM

Valid until

Apr 8, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Recent snowfall with strong winds has produced new slabs at higher elevations. Expect avalanche activity to increase on southerly aspects if the sun comes out.

Regular season
Saturday - April 7, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - April 8, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - April 9, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent snowfall has formed new slabs. Expect thicker slabs in lee features due to strong southerly winds. Slab or loose wet avalanches could release naturally when the sun is out or the air temperature warms.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.
  • Observe for the bond of new snow with the old surface before committing into avalanche terrain.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind-loaded snow.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A weak layer buried 40 to 70 cm is still surprising people and producing large and destructive avalanches. Be particularly cautious around upper treeline and alpine terrain on shady aspects, where this layer is most likely to be a problem.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagation due to the presence of buried weak layers.
  • Avoid steep terrain or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger persistent slabs.

Avalanche Problem 3: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Cornices are very large and fragile. Give them a large berth when on ridges and avoid travelling underneath them, as they can trigger large avalanches on slopes below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger persistent slabs.
  • Stay well back from cornices.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, a large (size 2.5) persistent slab avalanche was triggered by a cornice on a northeast aspect around 1900 to 2200 m.  The slab likely released on the weak layer described in the Snowpack Summary.  Other similar large avalanches were observed, as described in this MIN post.

Small to large (size 1 to 2) wind slabs were also reactive to skiers and large loads, generally failing in alpine terrain in immediate lee terrain features.  Loose wet avalanches were observed across the region on all aspects to size 1.5.

Snowpack Summary

Around 20 cm of snow and strong southwesterly winds created new slabs at higher elevations.  This snow overlies various old surfaces including previous storm snow, melt freeze crusts on sunny aspects, and old wind slabs.  On ridges, cornices are reported to be large and fragile. At lower elevations, precipitation fell as rain and created wet snow conditions.

A weak layer consisting of surface hoar, facets, or a sun crust from late March is now buried about 40 to 70 cm. This layer is spotty in its distribution. It is mostly likely to be problematic on shady aspects between 1900 m and 2250 m.

The mid and lower snowpack are strong and well-settled.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, light westerly winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1500 m.

MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, light southwesterly winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1600 m rising to 2000 m by late afternoon.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with afternoon precipitation, accumulation 5 mm, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level 2600 m dropping to 2000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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