Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Apr 6, 2018 - 4:37 PM

Valid until

Apr 7, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

New snow and wind beginning late Saturday afternoon will increase avalanche hazard.  If however, the storm arrives earlier than forecasted, hazard ratings will also increase sooner.

Regular season
Friday - April 6, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - April 7, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - April 8, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Winds have formed touchy wind slabs in leeward terrain on a variety of aspects.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices that could possibly trigger slabs.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Cornices are reported to be large and there have been recent observations of cornice releases.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday both natural and easily skier-triggered wind slab releases up to size 1.5 were reported in the southern part of the region.

Thursday in the Elkford area, recent small (size 1) loose/dry avalanches were reported on northerly aspects while loose/wet were observed on solar aspects. In the southeast corner of the region skier-triggered loose/dry avalanches were reported to be running far on a recently buried crust.

Wednesday small loose wet point releases were reported from steep rocky solar aspects.

On Tuesday, small avalanches were observed in the Alexander Creek area. On Monday, small natural avalanches were reported from the region, and ski cutting produced similar small avalanches on wind-loaded features. Also on Monday, explosives triggered one size 2 wind slab avalanche on an east aspect at 2300 m. This avalanche ran on a 60 cm deep crust layer.

Snowpack Summary

10-15 cm of snow sits above a variety of crusts on all but high north aspects. Northern parts of the region have less new snow than southern parts. Wind has formed hard slabs in lee features, and in some cases the snow may be poorly bonded to the crusts.

Multiple crusts exist in the top metre of the snowpack. Some parts of the region may have a surface hoar layer roughly 60 cm deep on north aspects at treeline.

A well settled midpack sits above sugary facets in many parts of the region, especially thin snowpack areas.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Ridge wind light to moderate, west. Alpine temperature near -10. Freezing level valley bottom.

SATURDAY: Increasing cloud, snow beginning in the afternoon. Accumulation 5-15 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, southwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 900 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation up to 5 cm. Ridge wind moderate, west. Alpine temperature near 0. Freezing level 1500 m.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind moderate, west. Alpine temperature near 0. Freezing level 2000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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