Avalanche Forecast

South Columbia

Date issued

Apr 2, 2018 - 5:23 PM

Valid until

Apr 3, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

Prolonged reactivity of storm slabs has earned them a persistent slab label, but the avoidance strategy hasn't changed. Keep it in mind as you navigate around the more obvious wind effect.

Regular season
Monday - April 2, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - April 3, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - April 4, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong and shifting winds have been blowing loose snow into wind slabs on a wide range of aspects in wind-affected areas. North winds were the most recent, so be especially cautious around freshly loaded south aspects.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Be especially careful with wind loaded pockets near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Our mid-March weak layer of crust and surface hoar has been buried by up to 90 cm of storm snow and has shown prolonged reactivity since the last storm. Manage the uncertainty around triggering this layer by sticking to lower angle, supported slopes.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Minimize exposure to steep south-facing slopes where recent storm snow overlies a crust.
  • Use caution around sheltered steep or convex slopes where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Saturday included numerous observations of storm slabs releasing naturally as well as with skier traffic and explosives control. Sizes ranged from 2-3, with crown fracture depths varying from 30-100 cm. This activity occurred on all aspects but was focused at alpine elevations and this problem is now being identified as a 'persistent slab'. Wind slab releases made up a large number of observations, noted predominantly on southeast aspects.

Widespread avalanche activity occurred in the top 30 cm of new snow on Friday. Numerous natural and skier triggered size 1 avalanches were reported, with the most reactive conditions on wind-affected slopes at treeline on north and east aspects.

On Thursday, several size 1 skier triggered storm slab avalanches were reported. They were 30-50 cm thick and occurred on north and east aspects above treeline. One of the slabs subsequently triggered a larger size 2 avalanches that ran on the late-March crust. Some natural size 2-3 storm slabs avalanches were also reported in alpine terrain and a cornice fall on a north aspect in the Selkirks triggered a size 2.5 avalanche on an unidentified 2 m deep weak layer.

Snowpack Summary

A variable 5-20 cm of new snow over Sunday night has brought storm snow totals from the past week to a wide-ranging 50-90 cm. with amounts that taper with elevation. The snowfall was initially accompanied by strong west wind and formed reactive slabs at higher elevations. More recent north winds reached extreme, so a mix of stubborn old and newer, more reactive wind slabs can now likely be found on a range of aspects.

Below the wind effect at the surface, a break between storm pulses allowed for the formation of yet another layer of sun crust (south aspects) and surface hoar (shaded aspects) that is now buried by 20-30 cm of new snow. The full depth of recent storm snow sits on a persistent weak layer buried in late-March that consist of crusts below 1900 m and on south aspects, and surface hoar on shaded aspects at higher elevations.

Pockets of surface hoar (buried mid-March) have been reported on shaded aspects at higher elevations and may be found approximately 70-100 cm below the surface.

Deeper persistent weak layers from January and December are still being reported by professional observers, but are generally considered dormant.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light southwest winds. Freezing level to 1300 metres with alpine high temperatures around -8.

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. Light southwest winds. Freezing level to 1100 metres with alpine high temperatures around -9.

Thursday: Cloudy with flurries bringing 6-10 cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Light southeast winds. Freezing level to 1300 metres with alpine high temperatures around -8.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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