Avalanche Forecast

Purcells

Date issued

Mar 29, 2018 - 4:15 PM

Valid until

Mar 30, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Wind slabs at higher elevations are the main concern, especially where these sit on a crust. These slabs will continue to build with new snow and wind Thursday night and Friday.

Regular season
Thursday - March 29, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - March 30, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - March 31, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Winds have created wind slabs at higher elevations. Sunny aspects (south through west) require extra caution due to the presence of a buried sun crust, which is acting as an excellent sliding layer for the recent storm snow.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
  • Use extra caution on solar slopes.

Avalanche Summary

Thursday there was a report of backcountry skier's triggering a size 1.5 storm slab release on a southeast aspect at 2400 m in the Jumbo area.

Wednesday we received reports of numerous natural storm slab avalanches up to size 3 in the alpine on all aspects, northwest of Radium as well as natural activity up to size 2.5 in areas west of Kimberley and Invermere.

Several skier triggered wind slab and storm slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were also reported from all aspects above 2000 m. These results were predominantly failing on the recently buried late-March interface, with crown depths from 20-50 cm deep and up to 100 cm in some areas.

On Tuesday several natural size 1 wind slabs, storm slabs and dry loose were reported in steep terrain near Golden, mostly on immediate lee (down wind) slopes. Also on Tuesday, a dry loose avalanche stepped down to a deeper weak layer, resulting in a size 2 avalanche. This was on a north aspect near 2500m.

And on Monday, skiers were able to trigger several wind slabs to size 1.5 on steeper west aspects between 1900m and 2400m. Slabs averaged 25-45cm thickness and were not bonding well to the March 19th sun crust.

Snowpack Summary

At tree line and above, most of the region's upper snowpack consists of 20-40 cm of recent storm snow. Areas just east of Kootenay Lake however have seen closer to 70 cm of storm snow.

This snow sits on the late-March interface that consists of; old wind slabs on northerly aspects, and crusts on solar aspects and all aspects below 1900 m.

Other slightly deeper surface hoar/facet layers have been reported on shaded aspects at higher elevations and can likely be found at approximately 40-60 cm below the surface.

Deeper persistent weak layers from mid-late February as well as January and December layers, are still being monitored by professional observers but are generally considered dormant. Facets also linger at the base of the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Flurries. Accumulation 2-4 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, west. Alpine temperature near -6. Freezing level valley bottom.

FRIDAY: Flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, northwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1600 m.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind light, west. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1500 m.

SUNDAY: Increasing cloud, flurries. Accumulation 2-4 cm. Ridge wind light to moderate, southwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1600 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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