Avalanche Forecast

Sea To Sky

Date issued

Mar 29, 2018 - 4:07 PM

Valid until

Mar 30, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mbender

Caution on shady aspects in the alpine and tree line elevation bands where a persistent weak layer may be reactive.

Regular season
Thursday - March 29, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - March 30, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - March 31, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent new snow and strong winds have formed wind slabs in the lee of terrain features. These may be most reactive where they may be sitting on a thin and weak layer of facetted crystals on shady aspects.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A weak layer of surface hoar or facetted crystals has become reactive especially where it may be sitting on a hard crust.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.
  • Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday there was a size 1 avalanche that sympathetically triggered a size 3 persistent slab avalanche resulting in a full burial. This was on a northeast aspect at 2000m, 50cm deep. Additionally there were reports of natural persistent slab avalanches size 2.5-3 on southeast through northeast aspects between 1800 and 2000m. These were reported to have happened in the previous 24-48 hours.

On Monday reports show explosives and skier controlled triggered storm and wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 on north and east aspects in the alpine. On Sunday there was a report of a skier-triggered cornice failure (size 2) on a northwest aspect at 2100 m, as well as skier and sledder triggered storm slabs (size 1.5) on east and north aspects in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

Last week's storm snow has been redistributed by moderate to strong southwest winds. This snow rests on the March 21st interface, a mix of moist grains at low elevations, crusts on solar aspects at all elevations and surface hoar/facets on north/east facing features at treeline and alpine elevations. Some west facing features may have surface hoar on top of a crust.

Deeper in the snowpack, 80 to 140 cm below the surface is a combination of facets, surface hoar, and/or crust known as the mid-February layer. This interface has not been active recently.

The mid and lower snowpack are strong and well settled.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Mix of sun, cloud and isolated flurries / Moderate northwest wind / Alpine temperature -4 / Freezing level 1400m

SATURDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods / Light southeast wind / Alpine temperature -3 / Freezing level 1500m

SUNDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries / Moderate west wind / Alpine temperature 5 / Freezing level 900m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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