Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Inland

Date issued

Mar 21, 2018 - 4:22 PM

Valid until

Mar 22, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

Storm slabs will build throughout the day. A CONSIDERABLE hazard may be the story in the am. Bump the hazard to HIGH in the alpine if you receive more than 25 cm of new snow by the afternoon.

Regular season
Wednesday - March 21, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - March 22, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - March 23, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The forecast storm snow will bond poorly to the plethora of old snow surfaces. It will likely step down deeper to the surface hoar layer buried March 9th. Uncertainty remains around the distribution of this layer.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported.

With forecast snow and wind you can expect the avalanche hazard to rise.

Snowpack Summary

Variable snow surfaces exist including dry snow, surface hoar, crusts and moist snow at lower elevations. High elevation, north aspects may have lingering wind slabs in immediate lee features which sit on surface hoar and/ or a sugary facet layer found down 10-30 cm. The forecast storm snow over the next 2 days will likely have a poor bond to these older snow surfaces.

A surface hoar and crust layer from January is buried around 80 to 140 cm in the southwest of the region. This layer still has the potential to be triggered from a thin snowpack spot, or with a large trigger like a cornice fall.

Sugary facets exist at the bottom of the snowpack in steep, rocky, and shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Forecast

Overnight Wednesday: 5-10 cm of new snow with strong easterly winds. Freezing level valley bottom.

Thursday: Snow amounts 10-25 cm with strong northeast-east winds. Freezing level valley bottom.

Friday: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Ridgetop winds moderate from the East. Alpine temperatures near -8 and freezing level at valley bottom.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with some sunny periods. Ridgetop winds light/ gusting strong from the southwest. Freezing levels near 900 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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