Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Mar 20, 2018 - 4:25 PM

Valid until

Mar 21, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

The best skiing and riding conditions are likely found on northerly aspects at upper elevations. Pay attention to changing conditions if the sun comes out.

Regular season
Tuesday - March 20, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - March 21, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - March 22, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow may bond poorly to the old snow surface, especially if it's a firm sun crust or hard wind slab. Smaller avalanches may trigger a deeper surface hoar layer buried March 9th. Uncertainty remains around the distribution of this layer.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for signs of instability such as avalanche activity, whumpfing, hollow sounds or cracking.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The sun can really pack a punch this time of year. Avoid solar slopes that become moist or wet.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.
  • Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, we received reports of a skier triggered size 1 wind slab on a north-east aspect near 1600m elevation. The slab averaged 20cm thickness and ran on the March 9th surface hoar / facet layer.

Last weekend, the region was active with a range of reports from large size 3 wet slabs which stepped down to the mid-December ice layer to a remotely triggered persistent slab (size 2), which stepped down to the mid-January surface hoar interface, running on an east aspect near 1600m.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack consists of a wide variety of snow surfaces, including up to 20 cm of new snow at higher elevations, pockets of wind slab, a melt-freeze crust on south-west aspects an wet snow down low, On March 9th, surface hoar and/or smaller facets (on sheltered, shady aspects) were buried by the last significant snowfall down 10-25 cm. This layer was reactive to skier triggers in some areas on Monday.

Deeper in the mid-pack, layers of crusts, facets, and isolated surface hoar buried 50 to 100 cm exist from mid- and late-February and a surface hoar/ crust layer from January is buried around 150 to 200 cm. Near the bottom of the snowpack, sugary facets exist in colder and dryer parts of the region, such as the far north.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud with light precipitation. Alpine temperatures near -1.0 and freezing levels at valley bottom. Ridgetop winds light gusting strong from the northeast.

Thursday: 10-20 cm of new snow in upper elevations accompanied by strong ridgetop winds from the East. Freezing levels near 500 m and rising through the day to 1200 m.

Friday: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine high of -3 and freezing levels near 700 m. Light winds from the East.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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