Avalanche Forecast

Purcells

Date issued

Mar 19, 2018 - 5:06 PM

Valid until

Mar 20, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

It's a good day for travel in the mountains. Normal cautions will help you to manage lingering cornices and small avalanche problems.

Regular season
Monday - March 19, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - March 20, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - March 21, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Small new wind slabs have formed in the immediate lee of ridgecrests and wind-exposed features. Slabs my be more reactive where they have buried a new layer of surface hoar. Small loose snow releases become likelier with daytime warming.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use extra caution around steep, sheltered north aspects where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday there were reports of small (size 1) skier and sled triggered slab avalanches (15 - 25 cm deep) on north and northeast aspects in the alpine. Explosive control work also produced several cornice failures up to size 2.5 that entrained loose snow on the slopes below but no deeper slab releases.

Explosive control work last Friday produced size 1.5 slab avalanches averaging 20-60 cm deep on steep northerly features at treeline.

Snowpack Summary

Recent light snowfalls (5-15 cm each) have been followed by warm daytime temperatures and glimpses of sun, setting up a couple of thin storm snow layers over temperature and sun crusts at lower elevations and on south aspects. On shaded aspects at higher elevations, Sunday's snowfall buried a layer of surface hoar now found 10-15 cm deep.

New snow amounts taper with elevation and below 1700 m, only minimal accumulations have buried a supportive crust on all aspects. This crust will likely break down with daytime warming, becoming moist in the afternoon.

Deeper persistent weak layers from mid-late February (down 40 -100 cm deep) as well as January and December layers are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with a surface avalanche stepping down, cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets. Facets also linger at the base of the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a possible trace of new snow. Light southwest winds. Freezing level to 1600 metres with alpine temperatures around -4.

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a possible trace of new snow. Light south winds, increasing overnight. Freezing level to 1700 metres with alpine high temperatures around -3.

Thursday: Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, increasing overnight. Light to moderate southeast winds. Freezing level to 2000 metres with alpine high temperatures around 0.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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