Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Mar 14, 2018 - 4:36 PM

Valid until

Mar 15, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Variable snow amounts are forecasted across the region, with the most expected on the eastern slopes.  Treat the hazard as higher if local snow amounts are substantially more than forecasted.

Regular season
Thursday - March 15, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - March 16, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - March 17, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Forecasted snowfall amounts are variable across the region, with the most expected on the eastern slopes.  Assess the snow accumulation and treat the hazard as higher if local amounts exceed 20 cm.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Keep an eye out for localized areas of enhanced snowfall, particularly on eastern slopes.
  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow may form touchy slabs.

Avalanche Problem 2: Deep Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Deeply buried weak layers linger in the snowpack. These layers are most likely to be triggered from thin snowpack areas.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger deep persistent slabs.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and shallow snowpack areas where triggering deeper layers is more likely.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread loose wet avalanches were noted on solar aspects to size 2 on Tuesday.  There was evidence of slab activity from sometime over the past week.  Some of the slabs stepped down to deep basal weaknesses.

Snowpack Summary

New snow will fall on a thick melt-freeze crust that exists on all aspects from recent warm temperatures and rain, except for possibly high elevation north.  On shady aspects at high elevations, new snow will likely fall on lingering wind slabs in lee features and loose dry in sheltered features.

A weak layer of surface hoar buried mid-February exists in parts of the region around 50 to 80 cm deep.  The lower snowpack is weak with a combination of crusts and facets near the bottom of the snowpack that are widespread.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY:  Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, light westerly winds, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1400 m.

FRIDAY:  Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, light easterly winds, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1400 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 15 cm, light to moderate northeasterly winds, alpine temperature -8 C, freezing level 1000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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