Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Mar 14, 2018 - 3:38 PM

Valid until

Mar 15, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Wind slabs can be found in immediate lee and cross-loaded features.  The best riding will be in areas sheltered from the recent wind and warming effects.

Regular season
Wednesday - March 14, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - March 15, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - March 16, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent south to easterly winds have produced wind slabs in lee and cross-loaded terrain features.  These slabs overly a crust or weak surface hoar layer in parts of the region, which have produced wide propagation and fast-moving avalanches.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.

Avalanche Summary

A small wind slab on a northerly aspect was triggered by skier activity in a wind loaded feature at 1600 m.  Otherwise, widespread loose wet avalanche activity was observed in the region on southerly aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warming and rain have melted and refrozen the snow surface.  Expect the snow surface to be a melt-freeze crust on all aspects except for possibly high elevation north.  Strong easterly to southerly winds have redistributed any available soft snow and produced variable surfaces in alpine and treeline terrain, including wind slabs in lee and cross-loaded features.  This overlies a sun crust on solar aspects and 5 to 20 mm surface hoar on sheltered, shady aspects at all elevation bands. 

Beneath this, layers of crusts, facets, and isolated surface hoar buried 50 to 100 cm exist below the surface from mid- and late-February.  A surface hoar and crust layer from January is buried around 150 to 200 cm.

Near the bottom of the snowpack, sugary facets exist in colder and dryer parts of the region, such as the far north.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY:  Cloudy with light snowfall at higher elevations and rain below, accumulation 1 to 3 mm, light northwesterly winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 900 m.

FRIDAY:  Mostly cloudy, light northerly winds, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level 1400 m.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy, light northeasterly winds, alpine temperature 1 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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