Avalanche Forecast
Purcells
Sunshine and warm temperatures should keep surface instabilities active on Sunday. Deeper persistent slab problems are an increasing concern.
Check out the Forecasters' Blog for more details: http://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/2018-03-09-first-big-warm-up
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.
- Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
- Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Rising temperatures and strong sunshine are increasing concern for weak layers buried deep in the snowpack. In addition to human triggering in thin spots, solar warming and cornice releases are possible natural triggers for persistent slabs.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Choose regroup spots away from avalanche paths.
- Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
- Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could potentially trigger the persistent slab.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from Friday included observations of numerous storm slabs and wind slabs that generally ran from size 1 to 2. These were triggered naturally as well as with ski cutting and all aspects and elevations were represented. Numerous loose wet avalanches were observed in the region as well as one natural size 1.5 cornice release. It failed to trigger any slab below it.
A natural cycle of size 1.5-2.5 loose wet avalanches was reported on south-facing slopes on Wednesday. A couple of size 2-2.5 persistent slabs were also observed on south aspects. These most likely failed on a crust buried in February. Some large cornice chunks fell down too.
Avalanche activity is expected to increase as we move into a period of intense sun and prolonged warming. Predictable loose wet avalanches from steep, sunny terrain should be easy to manage. The trickier beast will be when warmth penetrates into the snowpack to tickle deeper persistent weak layers. The next few days will be a time to avoid exposure to large sun-exposed features and keep well away from corniced slopes.
Snowpack Summary
Around 10-15 cm new snow has formed storm slabs that overlie a sun crusts on solar aspects. A couple of layers buried in mid-late February (down around 40-100 cm) are variably reactive, but both have the potential to create surprisingly large avalanches if triggered. Initially, these interfaces were most reactive on solar aspects, where they present as buried sun crusts. However, persistent slabs have been triggered on shady aspects too, where surface hoar and/or facets exist.
Deeper persistent weak layers from January and December are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with forecast warming, a surface avalanche stepping down, cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets. Facets also linger at the base of the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
Sunday: Sunny. Light south winds. Freezing level to 2000 metres with alpine high temperatures around 0.
Monday: Sunny. Light southwest winds. Freezing level to 2200 metres with alpine temperatures of +1.
Tuesday: Sunny. Light south winds, increasing over the day. Freezing level to 2700 metres with alpine temperatures of +3.
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Recent snow and wind have formed variable wind slabs and loose snow conditions. Slab and loose wet avalanches may be triggered by solar radiation on solar slopes, by cornice fall, or with the weight of a person.