Avalanche Forecast
Cariboos
Winter is loosening its grip and a warming event is on its way. Surface instabilities should be the main concern on Saturday.
Check out the Forecasters' Blog for more details: http://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/2018-03-09-first-big-warm-up
Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Choose regroup spots carefully, thinking about what is above you.
- Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
- Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.
Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Our newly formed storm slabs may remain reactive to human triggering on Saturday. Solar aspects are especially concerning because of direct sunshine acting as a natural trigger and a higher likelihood for buried crust to act as a sliding layer.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use extra caution on open slopes and convex rolls.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
- If triggered, large storm slabs may step down to deeper layers and result in very large avalanches.
Avalanche Summary
Thursday's reports included one observation of an older size 2.5 natural wind slab release in the south of the region. This avalanche occurred on a 40 degree southwest slope in the alpine and had a depth of 60 cm.
On Wednesday, a chunk of falling ice triggered a size 2.5 avalanche. On Tuesday, a few large cornice falls were reported, without releasing large avalanches on slopes below. A few loose wet solar-triggered avalanches were also observed.
Avalanche activity is expected to increase as we move into a period of intense sun and prolonged warming. Predictable loose wet avalanches from steep, sunny terrain should be easy to manage. A trickier problem will gradually emerge as warmth penetrates into the snowpack to tickle deeper persistent weak layers that have lately been dormant in the Cariboos. The next few days will be a time to avoid exposure to large sunny features and keep well away from corniced slopes.
Snowpack Summary
Thursday's storm brought 20-30 cm of new snow by Friday morning. This new snow overlies well-settled storm snow from regular snowfalls over the past couple of weeks. Although several layers of sun crust can be found within this storm snow on solar aspects, recent snowpack tests have not been producing concerning results in the upper snowpack.
Persistent weak layers from early January and mid-December are still being reported by local operators. They are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with forecast warming, a surface avalanche stepping down, a cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets. A weak layer of facets also lingers at the base of the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud, becoming increasingly sunny. Light south winds, becoming strong in the alpine. Freezing level rising to 1500 metres with alpine temperatures around -3.
Sunday: Mainly sunny. Light south winds. Freezing level rising to 1800 metres with alpine temperatures of -1.
Monday: Sunny. Light southeast winds. Freezing level rising to 2100 metres with alpine temperatures around 0 to +1.
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Avalanche Canada has switched to an RSS feed for its daily forecasts. This is a much more flexible method that allows automatic delivery to your email inbox, or to an RSS reader of your choice.
What are RSS feeds?
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Set up an RSS feed for your email:
Select a RSS aggregator
- Cariboos URL:
http://www.avalanche.ca/api/forecasts/cariboos.rss - Copy the url and paste it into the appropriate field of your RSS aggregator.
- Fill in your email address.
- Voila! Watch the Avalanche Canada forecast roll into your inbox.
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Sun on new snow is likely to lead to loose moist avalanches which could run surprisingly far. Large loose avalanches may also have potential to step down to deeply buried weak layers.