Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Mar 8, 2018 - 4:29 PM

Valid until

Mar 9, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mbender

Snowfall amounts are uncertain Thursday night into Friday. Higher amounts are expected in the southern portion of the region. If amounts are higher than forecast, the danger rating may be higher than what is indicated.

Regular season
Friday - March 9, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - March 10, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - March 11, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow combined with predominantly southerly winds will create wind slabs in the lee of terrain features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and warming will likely make cornices extra brittle.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose wet avalanches were observed in steep south-facing terrain on Wednesday and Tuesday. Most were small (size 1), but a few in the Coquihalla reached size 2.

Snowpack Summary

New snow accumulating on Thursday into Friday has been redistributed by southerly winds at upper elevations. The new snow sits on a sun crust on steep south-facing slopes, cold dry snow on polar aspects, and wind affected snow at upper elevations.

In northern parts of the region the mid-February weak layer is about 40 cm below the surface and has been reactive in some snowpack tests. The layer is composed of sugary facets, a sun crust on solar aspects, and surface hoar that is present at and below treeline. No recent avalanche activity has been reported on these layers. The snowpack is well settled in southern parts of the region (e.g. Coquihalla and Manning Park).

Variable winds in the past month have created cornices on many alpine ridgelines. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as the strong late-winter sun shines down upon them on clear days.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Flurries overnight Thursday into Friday, accumulation 10-20cm then a mix of sun and cloud through Friday / Light to moderate west wind / Alpine temperature -5 / Freezing level 700m

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light south wind / Alpine temperature -1 / Freezing level 1400m

SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light to moderate south wind / Alpine temperature 6 / Freezing level 2200m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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