Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
Hazard may be one step higher in areas that receive more than 10 cm of new snow by Thursday afternoon.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use caution when transitioning into wind effected terrain.
- Use small slopes with low or no consequence to test the bond of the new snow.
- Avoid terrain traps where small avalanches can have high consequence.
Avalanche Summary
Two size 2 slab avalanches were reported near Fernie on Tuesday. One was triggered by a cornice and the other by an explosive. Avalanche activity will likely increase on Friday as Thursday night's storm creates fresh storm slabs.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 15 cm of recent storm snow and sun crusts on solar aspects.
In the upper to mid snowpack, a surface hoar layer buried mid-February is now 80 to 100 cm below the surface on sheltered northerly aspects.
Deeper in the snowpack, the widespread mid-December and late November weak layers are composed of a combination of crusts and sugary facets which are down 200-300 cm.
No recent avalanches have occurred on these persistent weak layers. However, the primary concern looking ahead towards the weekend and early next week is the potential of these deeper persistent weak layers becoming active by rapid warming of the snowpack through rising freezing levels and intense solar radiation.
Weather Forecast
THURSDAY: 5-10 cm new snow / Light to moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing levels rising to around 1500 m.
THURSDAY NIGHT: 5-15 cm new snow / Strong southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 1200 m.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with flurries / Moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 1500m.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny / Light southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level rising to around 1800 m.
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Storm slabs may be larger than expected in areas that receive more than 10 cm of snow by Thursday afternoon.