Avalanche Forecast
Purcells
Recent new snow combined with wind has promoted wind slab development as well as cornice growth. As the clouds part in the coming days remember that the sun packs a punch this time of year.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
- Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
A weak layer buried up to 90cm deep "woken-up" last week. This problem seems most reactive in south-facing terrain where buried crusts exist.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could potentially trigger the persistent slab.
- Watch convoluted terrain with variable snowpack depth and multiple trigger points.
- Carefully assess and consider avoiding southerly facing slopes
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday there were Reports from the weekend consist primarily of natural and explosive triggered wind and storm slab avalanches size 1.5 to 2.5 in the alpine and at treeline on northerly, easterly and westerly aspects. Additionally there was a skier triggered size 1.5 persistent slab avalanche on a southwest aspect at 2100m that failed on a facets 100cm deep.
Snowpack Summary
Storm snow amounts from the last week total 50-80cm (higher amounts in the south and west parts of the region). This new snow has been redistributed into wind slabs in wind-exposed terrain by primarily south, southwest and southeast wind. 70-100cm below the surface there's a layer buried mid-February that's a sun crust on solar aspects, and spotty surface hoar on sheltered slopes. This layer looks most concerning on on solar aspects where it's associated with with small facets or surface hoar above.
There are several deeper layers that have shown signs of improving but still remain suspect as low probability - high consequence avalanche problems. We are talking about surface hoar layer buried back in December and January. Near the base of the snowpack is a November crust combined with loose sugary faceted snow. These layers may "wake-up" with strong inputs such as sustained warming, sustained snowfall, large triggers (e.g. cornice fall or smaller avalanches coming down from above); human triggering is also possible in shallow snowpack areas with convoluted terrain.
Weather Forecast
TUESDAY: Mix of sun, cloud and isolated flurries / Light southwest wind / Alpine temperature -11
WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light southwest wind / Alpine temperature -10
THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries / Light to moderate southwest wind / Alpine temperature -6
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Recent new snow combined with wind means localized slabs on the leeward side of ridges and on cross-loaded slopes and gulleys. Anticipate old buried wind slabs on a variety of aspects.