Avalanche Forecast

Kootenay Boundary

Date issued

Mar 2, 2018 - 6:02 PM

Valid until

Mar 3, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

ghelgeson

Previously strong wind has created widespread wind and storm slabs which will likely remain sensitive to human triggering this weekend. Keep a close eye on the cloud cover, even brief periods of direct sun could initiate natural avalanches.

Regular season
Friday - March 2, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - March 3, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - March 4, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Easterly winds Thursday formed fresh storm and wind slabs that are expected to remain sensitive to human triggering this weekend. Triggering is most likely near ridge crest and around mid slope features like convexities.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Seek out simple well supported terrain below treeline and gather information before stepping out.
  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A persistent weak layer buried up to 90 cm below the surface may be sensitive to human triggering. South facing terrain is likely to be the most problematic due to the presence of a slippery buried crust.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.
  • Start with conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.
  • If triggered, storm slab avalanches in motion may step down resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

Control work on Friday produced storm slab avalanches to size 2.5 on southeast through southwest facing features between 1700 and 2050 m.

On Thursday storm slabs to size 2.5 released naturally on a variety of aspects. Human triggered avalanches to size 2 were reported from both west and northeast facing features between 1950 and 2000 m.

Control work Wednesday produced storm slabs to size 2 on southeast, south, southwest and northwest facing features between 1800 and 2100 m. A skier triggered size 1.5 storm slab was reported from a southwest facing feature at 2000 m.

Relatively deep storm slabs were sensitive to human triggering on Tuesday to size 1.5 on south and east facing terrain between 1700 and 2000 m. Crown heights were between 25 and 60 cm. Widespread sluffing was also reported.

Snowpack Summary

The region picked up 20 to 60 cm of new snow this week with widely variable winds. Moderate to strong east/southeast winds picked up Thursday night and added some stiffness to the storm slab at all elevations. In some locations this snow rests on the February 23rd weak layer which is composed of small surface hoar on polar aspects and a thin crust on solar aspects. Moderate resistant planar shears were reported at this interface Friday.

40 to 90 cm of snow now rests on the mid-February weak layer that is composed of facets, surface hoar and a sun crust on solar aspects.

Deeper in the snowpack weak layers that formed in January and December are gradually gaining strength. Several surface hoar and facet layers are buried 1 to 2 m below the surface and there is a crust/ facet interface near the base of the snowpack. No avalanches have been reported on these layers for the past two weeks and snowpack tests are showing improved bonding. Despite these signs, avalanche professionals are still treating these layers with respect and being cautious around shallow start zones and big avalanche paths.

Weather Forecast

We are moving into a high and dry period for the foreseeable future. Northwest flow across the province will allow a couple of shortwave troughs to ripple along the upper flow giving a mix of sun and cloud. At this time, precipitation amounts will be insignificant.

SATURDAY: Overcast, freezing level rising to around 1200 m, light to moderate southwest wind, trace of precipitation possible.

SUNDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level rising to around 1000 m, light southwest wind, trace of precipitation possible.

MONDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level rising to around 900 m, light west wind, no precipitation expected.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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