Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Mar 2, 2018 - 4:44 PM

Valid until

Mar 3, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

Strong outflow winds are driving the avalanche danger now that the storm has ended. Seek out supported slopes in sheltered terrain for the safest and best skiing and riding.

Regular season
Friday - March 2, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - March 3, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - March 4, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong winds have pressed and redistributed recent storm snow into reactive slabs on all aspects. These slabs have failed with light triggers in recent days. Increase caution around steep or convex slopes and avoid wind loaded or crossloaded areas.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created deep slabs.
  • Caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried crust/surface hoar may be touchy.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control work on Thursday produced very large destructive storm slab results from size 3-4+ on north and south aspects the Skeena corridor, as well as a remotely triggered (from 400 m away) size 2, storm slab at treeline in the Shames area.

On Wednesday and Tuesday we received a reports of a large (size 3-3.5) natural cycle as well as two very large (size 4 and 4.5) natural avalanches that failed in deeply wind-loaded areas. The larger of these occurred near Snowbound Creek west of Terrace on a south aspect at 1400 m and ran full path from ridge top to valley bottom, destroying a significant amount of mature forest beyond it's historical trimlines.

There was also a report of a size 2 skier-triggered cornice release on Wednesday that occurred on a northeast aspect at 1300 m, northwest of Terrace.

Snowpack Summary

Strong outflow winds have been scouring and redistributing recent storm snow accumulations of 50-100 cm into deep and reactive wind slabs on a variety of aspects.

Within this storm snow, a layer of surface hoar down about 10 cm has been reported as reactive to skier traffic in sheltered areas below treeline.  The interface at the base of the storm snow consists of heavily wind affected surfaces at higher elevations as well as sun crusts or dry facets in sheltered terrain.

Another interface composed of sun crust, facets, and more isolated surface hoar can be found about 100-150 cm deep.

Deeper in the snowpack, around 150-200 cm down, you'll find a crust/surface hoar layer from January which still has the potential to be triggered from a thin snowpack spot, or with a large trigger like cornice fall.

Basal facets may be found near the bottom of the snowpack in colder and drier parts of the region, such as in the far north.

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Sunny. Moderate to strong northeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around -11.

Sunday: Mainly sunny. Light variable winds. Alpine high temperatures around -9.

Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures of -10.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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