Avalanche Forecast

Kootenay Boundary

Date issued

Feb 27, 2018 - 4:30 PM

Valid until

Feb 28, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

ghelgeson

30 to 60 cm of snow is slowly coalescing into a slab above the mid-February persistent weak layer that has recently been sensitive to human triggering. Watch for fresh wind slabs at upper elevations too.

Regular season
Tuesday - February 27, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - February 28, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - March 1, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs are widespread above treeline and may remain sensitive to human triggering Wednesday. Triggering is most likely immediately lee of ridge crest and around mid slope features like convexities.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be very cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Fresh snow Wednesday may hide wind slabs that formed earlier this week.
  • Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A persistent weak layer buried up to 60 cm below the surface may be sensitive to human triggering. Start with simple terrain and gather information before thinking about more committing objectives.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • If triggered, wind slab avalanches in motion may step down resulting in large avalanches.
  • Start with conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.
  • Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday control work produced wind slab avalanches to size 1 on south and east facing features around 2150 m. A skier triggered size 1.5 avalanche was reported on a southwest facing feature at 2000 m which likely ran on the February 23rd sun crust that was buried by the recent storm. Loose dry avalanches to size 1 were also reported from northwest through northeast facing terrain between 2000 and 2100 m.

On Sunday storm slab avalanches were susceptible to both skier triggering and explosive control work to size 2. Storm slabs were reported from an east facing slope at 2025 m and northeast through northwest facing slopes between 1900 and 2100 m. In the southern portion of the neighboring South Columbia region a skier triggered size 2 avalanche was reported from a southwest facing slope at 1550 m. The avalanche had a crown 40 to 60 cm in depth and ran on the mid-February weak layer.

Snowpack Summary

Two successive storms over the weekend produced 10 to 40 cm of new snow accompanied by wind out of the southwest, west and northwest. In some locations this snow rests on the February 23rd weak layer which is composed of small surface hoar on polar aspects and a thin crust on solar aspects. 30 to 60 cm of snow now rests on the mid-February weak layer that is composed of facets, surface hoar and a sun crust on solar aspects.

Deeper in the snowpack weak layers that formed in January and December are gradually gaining strength. Several surface hoar and facet layers are buried 1 to 2 m below the surface and there is a crust/ facet interface near the base of the snowpack. No avalanches have been reported on these layers for the past two weeks and snowpack tests are showing improved bonding. Despite these signs, avalanche professionals are still treating these layers with respect and being cautious around shallow start zones and big avalanche paths.

Weather Forecast

We are entering what looks to be a very snowy period. The Wednesday night storm has potential to be a good re-fresh, and then the gift should keep on giving as the associated upper low drops south over the next few days. Weather models are converging on a solution but this is an incredibly dynamic period and the following should be taken as loose suggestions. If you are craving detail, now is a great time to click on the ACMWF link below.

WEDNESDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1000 m, moderate southwest wind, trace of snow.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 500 m, 2 to 10 cm of snow, strong south/southwest wind.

THURSDAY: Overcast, freezing level rising to around 1500 m, light to moderate south/southeast wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.

FRIDAY: Overcast, freezing level rising to around 1500 m, moderate southeast wind, 2 to 10 cm of snow possible.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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