Avalanche Forecast
North Columbia
Extreme winds will drive the avalanche danger in many areas. The best and safest riding may be found in mellow, sheltered terrain.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.
- Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
Avalanche Summary
In recent days, several natural storm slab avalanches to size 2 were observed failing in response to new snow and wind. These avalanches ran on all aspects above 1800m. A noteworthy event was a naturally-triggered size 3 persistent slab avalanche which failed on the mid-January surface hoar. The avalanche, which is thought to have been triggered by sloughing from above, occurred in the Monashees near Revelstoke on a northeast facing slope at 1900m. This avalanche points to the continued reactivity of deeper persistent slabs in isolated terrain. Continued light snowfall snow and strong winds will promote ongoing wind slab activity, especially in exposed higher elevation terrain.
Snowpack Summary
About 20-50 cm of new snow now covers old surfaces which include faceted powder, a sun crust on solar aspects and surface hoar on shaded, wind-sheltered slopes. I suspect strong winds will have redistributed much of the new snow into fresh wind slabs in exposed terrain. 40-70 cm below the surface lies another interface with similar character and distribution. This layer, which was buried in mid-February, has been reactive in snowpack tests and is definitely worth keeping an eye on as the overlying slab gains thickness and cohesion.
There are several persistent weak layers that are showing signs of improving but still remain suspect as low probability - high consequence avalanche problems. Two surface hoar layers buried in January are now 100-150 cm below the snow surface. Deeper in the snowpack (150 - 200 cm deep) is a facet/crust/surface hoar layer buried in December. Near the base of the snowpack is a crust/facet combo layer buried in late November. These layers may "wake-up" with strong inputs such as solar radiation, rapid loading/warming, or a cornice fall. Human triggering is also possible in shallow, rocky terrain.
Weather Forecast
Tuesday: 5-12cm of new snow / Extreme westerly winds / Alpine temperature of -15
Wednesday: Light flurries / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Alpine temperature of -8
Thursday: Light flurries / Light southerly winds / Alpine temperature of -5
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New snow and continued strong winds will create wind slabs in many areas in the alpine as well as open areas at lower elevations. If triggered wind slabs may "step down" to deeper layers including a weak interface buried mid-February.