Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Feb 24, 2018 - 4:07 PM

Valid until

Feb 25, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

pgoddard

New wind slabs are building quickly. These can be triggered by the weight of  a person.

Regular season
Saturday - February 24, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - February 25, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - February 26, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs are touchy and can be triggered by you. They can be found near ridges and ribs.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Travel on ridgetops to avoid wind slabs on slopes below.
  • Minimize exposure to overhead hazard from cornices.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm snow will be especially sensitive to human triggers in steep or convex terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.
  • Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.

Avalanche Summary

A skier triggered a size 2 slab on a steep south-east facing slope near ridge crest at 1970 m on Saturday. It was 20-60 cm deep and failed on facets. Explosives testing produced several loose dry avalanches in steep terrain. A natural cornice fall triggered a size 2 wind slab on a north-east aspect.

A skier also remotely triggered a size 2 persistent slab on a north aspect at 1750 m. It failed on surface hoar, which is isolated in its distribution, but is most likely found on sheltered north aspects.

A developing wind slab problem was observed as winds picked up throughout the day. These problems are expected to continue to develop, and may be especially touchy in specific locations where they overlie buried persistent weak layers.

Snowpack Summary

New wind slabs are building quickly as available light dry snow is moved around by moderate winds. Snow spillage from steep ground is also loading up fan features. In more sheltered locations, you may encounter storm slabs or loose dry sluffing. These upper snowpack problems overlie various old surfaces including old hard wind slabs, crusts, facets and spotty surface hoar. Storm slabs and wind slabs were becoming reactive to human triggers on Saturday in some areas.

Deeper in the snowpack, the widespread mid-December weak layer sits about 130-220 cm deep. This consists of a crust, facets or surface hoar. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer could be awoken from a thin-spot trigger point, or with a very large load like a cornice fall.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: 15 cm light dry snow. Freezing level near 1000 m. Light to moderate south-westerly winds.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy with flurries possible. Freezing level near 700 m. Moderate west to north-westerly winds.

TUESDAY: 5-10 cm snow. Freezing level near 1000 m. Moderate to strong south-westerly winds.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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