Avalanche Forecast
South Coast
Lots to think about: 1) Storm slabs have formed on all aspects, 2) Strong winds have loaded lee features, 3) Expect touchy cornices on ridges. Be cautious and conservative with your decision making and stick to low-angled, sheltered terrain.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind-loaded snow.
- Watch for signs of instability, such as avalanche activity, whumpfs, and shooting cracks.
- Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.
Avalanche Summary
The new snow was reactive to skier activity on Friday, producing small (size 1) dry loose and storm slabs.
Expect natural and human-triggered avalanche activity to increase with the incoming storm followed by warming sunshine.
Snowpack Summary
Around 30 to 40 cm of storm snow fell on Friday and another 25 cm of snow is forecasted for Saturday night, with more possible with convective flurries on Sunday. Both of these storms had strong southerly winds. Expect touchy storm slabs on all aspects with deeper deposits found in lee features. All of this snow fell on previously wind-affected surfaces and a sun crust on southerly aspects. The new snow may not bond well to these surfaces and could be reactive to both natural and human triggers.
A hard rain crust that extends into alpine terrain is buried about 60 to 100 cm. Reports suggest the snow has a poor bond to the crust with test results showing sudden planar characteristics and a Rutschblock 2 (the whole block failing after standing on it).
Monitor the bonds of the new snow as well as the bond of the snow directly above the buried crust. There are no substantial layers of concern below the crust.
Also make note of cornices at ridgeline. Variable winds in the past month have produced cornices on all aspects. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as the sun packs a strong punch on clear days. Stand well back of them!
Weather Forecast
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 15 to 25 cm, strong westerly winds, treeline temperature -4 C, freezing level 500 m.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with possible convective flurries and lightning and afternoon sunny skies, light to moderate westerly winds, treeline temperature -7 C, freezing level 400 m.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, light northwesterly winds, treeline temperature -5 C, freezing level 500 m.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate westerly winds, treeline temperature -4 C, freezing level 600 m.
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Storm slabs have formed with new snow and strong winds. They sit above previous wind slabs that are not bonding well to a buried crust. Expect human and natural avalanche activity. Stick to low-angled terrain and give the snow time to stabilize.