Avalanche Forecast
South Coast
Lots to think about: 1) New slabs have formed, which may not bond well to underlying snow surfaces. 2) The sun could trigger avalanches on solar slopes. 3) Expect large and touchy cornices on ridges. Conservative decision making is recommended!
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.
- Watch for signs of instability, such as avalanche activity, whumpfs, and shooting cracks.
- Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind-loaded snow.
Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Large cornices have formed along ridgelines. Cornices are inherently unstable, unpredictable, and demand respect, especially if the sun is shining.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- Firm cornices may pull back into flat terrain at ridgetop if they fail.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported on Thursday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, several natural wind slab avalanches were reported from all aspects up to size 2.
Expect natural and human-triggered avalanche activity to increase with the storms and warming sunshine.
Snowpack Summary
Around 20 to 30 cm of storm snow fell with strong southwesterly winds, producing storm slabs on all aspects with deeper deposits found in lee features. This snow fell on previously wind-affected surfaces. The new snow may not bond well to these surfaces and could be reactive to both natural and human triggers.
A hard rain crust that extends into alpine terrain is buried about 50 to 90 cm. Reports suggest the snow has a poor bond to the crust with test results showing sudden planar characteristics and a Rutschblock 2 (the whole block failing after standing on it).
Monitor the bonds of the new snow as well as the bond of the snow directly above the buried crust. There are no substantial layers of concern below the crust.
Also make note of cornices at ridgeline. Variable winds in the past month have produced cornices on all aspects. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as the sun packs a strong punch on clear days. Stand well back of them!
Weather Forecast
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 15 cm, moderate to strong westerly winds, treeline temperature -3 C, freezing level 500 m.
SATURDAY: Sunny with late afternoon clouds, light northwesterly winds, treeline temperature -4 C, freezing level 800 m.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with early-morning snowfall, accumulation 10-15 cm, strong westerly winds decreasing to light over the day, treeline temperature -3 C, freezing level 800 m.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, light southwesterly winds, treeline temperature -3 C, freezing level 800 m.
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Storm slabs have formed with new snow and strong winds. Expect deeper slabs in lee features. They sit above previous wind slabs that are not bonding well to a buried crust. Caution when the sun is out, as it may trigger avalanches on solar slopes.