Avalanche Forecast

Sea To Sky

Date issued

Feb 20, 2018 - 4:31 PM

Valid until

Feb 21, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

The snow is heavily wind-affected. Stick to sheltered trees to find the best and safest riding.

Regular season
Tuesday - February 20, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - February 21, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - February 22, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong winds from the north have blown recent snow into reactive wind slabs at higher elevations.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Approach steep lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
  • Sheltered slopes at lower elevations will offer the best riding.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Large cornices have formed along ridgelines. Cornices are inherently unstable, unpredictable, and demand respect.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Minimize overhead exposure to cornices above, they could trigger a slab from the slope below.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, numerous wind slabs and cornice failures were reported. Most wind slabs were reactive to rider triggers, and explosive control up to size 2 on all aspects above 1800 m. The cornice failures were triggered by explosives but not pulling a slab or entraining much mass from the slopes below.

With little change in the weather forecast natural avalanche activity will subside, but human triggers remain possible.

Snowpack Summary

In exposed terrain, strong north winds have scoured north facing slopes and loaded south facing slopes. In sheltered terrain, especially in the trees the cold weather is preserving 30-40 cm of low density snow. A crust layer can be found beneath the storm snow on sun-exposed slopes and below 1900 m, which has supported some wide propagations in recent storm slab avalanches.

Deeper in the snowpack, avalanche professionals are still monitoring the mid-January crust. This layer is now 150-200 cm deep, but a heavy trigger (cornice?) or the next major storm (warming and loading) could potentially wake up this layer.

Weather Forecast

A fairly benign weather pattern is expected through the forecast period.

Wednesday: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures near -12 and ridgetop winds light to moderate from the West.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with some cloud cover. Alpine temperatures near -10 and ridgetop winds light to moderate from the North.

Friday: Mainly cloudy with some new snow. Alpine temperatures near -9 and ridgetop winds strong from the southwest.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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