Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Inland

Date issued

Feb 19, 2018 - 4:19 PM

Valid until

Feb 20, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Strong outflow winds have created touchy wind slabs that are likely easy to trigger. Watch out on solar aspects where the sun could weaken the snow surface.

Regular season
Monday - February 19, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - February 20, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - February 21, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong winds have produced stiff and touchy wind slabs in lee and cross-loaded features. The slabs have been described as highly variable.  They will likely be reactive to human triggers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • If triggered, wind slabs may step down to deeper layers, resulting in large avalanches.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind-loaded snow.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain; avoid lee and cross-loaded features

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Several weak layers are lurking in our snowpack. They will be more easily triggered where the snowpack is shallow.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Minimize overhead exposure, as avalanches could run for long distances.
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagation.

Avalanche Summary

Many small to large (size 1 to 3.5) wind slabs were reported on both Saturday and Sunday in lee features and cross-loaded terrain on southerly to easterly slopes. The avalanches were triggered naturally and by skiers.

Avalanche activity may slow down with a period of cold, clear weather expected to persist well into the week, unless the sun is powerful enough to warm the snow surface. Watch for steep sunny slopes due to the suns influence, lee features for reactive wind slabs, and be extra cautious near thin spots and shallow snow pack areas where triggering a deeper weak layer is more likely.

Snowpack Summary

Northeasterly winds have created stiff wind slabs on leeward slopes and scoured wind-exposed slopes at all elevations.

Deeper in the snowpack, two layers of crust and/or weak surface hoar are 20 to 40 cm deep and 60 to 100 cm deep. The deeper crust exists well into the alpine and the surface hoar can be found in sheltered areas in lower alpine and tree line elevations. Snowpack tests have produced hard, sudden results on weak, sugary snow crystals associated with this deeper crust in the Smithers area, suggesting that it is a layer of concern.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Sunny, light to moderate northerly winds, alpine temperature near -12 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy, moderate to strong northerly winds, alpine temperature near -10 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy, light to moderate westerly winds, alpine temperature -9 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Forecasts in your Inbox

Avalanche Canada has switched to an RSS feed for its daily forecasts. This is a much more flexible method that allows automatic delivery to your email inbox, or to an RSS reader of your choice.

What are RSS feeds?

RSS (Really Simple Syndication) is a popular standardized file format allowing up-to-date delivery of web-based content. RSS feeds enable you to receive content updates from websites, delivered to your email through an RSS aggregator (such as blogtrottr.com) or viewed through applications called RSS readers (such as feedly.com).

Set up an RSS feed for your email:

Select a RSS aggregator

  1. Northwest Inland URL: http://www.avalanche.ca/api/forecasts/northwest-inland.rss
  2. Copy the url and paste it into the appropriate field of your RSS aggregator.
  3. Fill in your email address.
  4. Voila! Watch the Avalanche Canada forecast roll into your inbox.

Forecast Disclaimer

Avalanche Canada's Public Avalanche Bulletin, and other information and services provided by Avalanche Canada, are intended for personal and recreational purposes only.

**THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED "AS IS" AND IN NO EVENT SHALL THE PROVIDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, DAMAGES RESULTING FROM DISCOMFORT, INJURY, OR DEATH, CLAIMS BY THIRD PARTIES OR FOR OTHER SIMILAR COSTS, OR ANY SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, ARISING OUT OF THE USE OF THE INFORMATION.**

The user acknowledges that it is impossible to accurately predict natural events such as avalanches in every instance, and uses the data in this bulletin with this always foremost in mind. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed or warranted in any way and the Providers disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use, or inability to use the data.