Date issued

Feb 15, 2018 - 8:00 AM

Valid until

Feb 16, 2018 - 8:00 AM

Prepared by

mark herbison

Sunny skies and prolonged solar radiation could take a toll on the snowpack, weakening cornices and southerly facing aspects.

Conservative terrain choices are appropriate for the day.

Regular season
Thursday - February 15, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - February 16, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - February 17, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

40cm in 48hrs, previous moderate winds have redistributed it into pockets of wind slab in the alpine and exposed treeline locations. Expect the storm slab to be most reactive along ridge lines, convexities and in steep unsupported terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming reactive slabs.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

These slabs will be most susceptible to triggering in shallow areas. This type of instability will linger for a while yet. The significant storms seen recently have overloaded these layers, priming slopes to fail only awaiting a trigger.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Avoid thin, rocky or unsupported slopes.

Avalanche Problem 3: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Cornices have become reactive in the last week. Strong winds, fluctuating temperatures, significant snowfall and strong solar radiation has contributed to these loitering hazards failing.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Cornices become weak with prolonged solar radiation, avoid traveling under these large hazards.
  • Minimize exposure to overhead hazard from cornices.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous avalanches observed yesterday along highway corridor up to size 3.0.

Three days ago a group ascending MacDonald West Shoulder #4 remotely trigger a size 3.0 into NRC Gully from 10m away, the dust cloud settled within a few hundred meters of the highway. No one was involved in the avalanche.

Snowpack Summary

7cm of snow overnight, 40cm in the past two days brings to height of snow to 335cm at 1900m. Previous southerly winds have created pockets of wind slab in the alpine and exposed tree line areas which is now covered by a thin layer of  snow. Persistent weak layers are now buried 150-200cm and a sun crust on steep solar aspects is down 30-50cm.

Weather Forecast

Don't forget to 'slip, slap, slop' your florescent green zinc sun screen on, as today will bring prolonged periods of sun with some cloudy periods. No snow in the forecast, temps ranging from -7 to -15 with 15-30km/hr westerly winds. Snow starting late this evening with 10-15cm by Saturday night with cold temps for Sunday into next week.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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