Date issued

Feb 12, 2018 - 3:40 PM

Valid until

Feb 13, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

michael.olsthoorn

Natural avalanches have slowed down but human triggering is still a real concern.

Regular season
Monday - February 12, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - February 13, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - February 14, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Found at treeline and above up to 50cm thick. They are being found on all aspects due to reverse loading patterns of recent winds.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent avalanche activity have stepped down with fractures up to 200cm thick

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
  • Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed. Natural avalanches were still happening on Sunday so human triggering is still pretty high...

Snowpack Summary

A profile at 2200m showed the Jan. 18 surface hoar layer is down 40cm, Jan 6 surface hoar layer is down 60cm and the Dec 15 facets is down 90cm.  The surface hoar layers(Jan 18 and Jan 6) are not producing any test results.  The Dec 15 facets layer was producing a hard compression test and was sudden planar in nature on loose facets.  The November crusts have turned into facets at this elevation.  The bottom 70cm of the snowpack consists of facets which is about half of the snow pack at this elevation.

The bigger concern is still for human triggering at tree line and in the alpine.  Tuesday is forecast for strong winds along with strong gusts; so I bet wherever there was no wind slab, there will be lots of it.  Stay tuned...

Weather Forecast

Wind, wind wind...Tuesday if forecast to be cloudy with scattered flurries and an alpine temperature of -6c.  The interesting part of Tuesday is that the wind will be westerly at 60km/h with gusts to 100km/h+

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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