Avalanche Forecast
Purcells
A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect. Copy this link to view details: http://bit.ly/2nSOUyX
Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid the runout zones of avalanche paths. Very large avalanches have been running full path.
- Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
- Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Recent north-westerly winds have left behind wind slabs and cornices on lee slopes.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Travel on ridgetops to avoid wind slabs on slopes below.
- Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
Avalanche Summary
A very large, widespread avalanche cycle was observed on Thursday, and explosives control continued to get large results on Friday. Slopes of all aspects and elevations ran, some going full path to valley floor, destroying mature timber. These failed on all of the persistent weak layers discussed in the snowpack section. Avalanches involving only the recent storm snow were also very large. On Saturday, several cornice-triggered slabs up to size 2.5 were reported above 2400 m.
The natural cycle is winding down, but human-triggering remains a real concern. You might be surprised by how large an avalanche can be triggered and how far it could run.
Snowpack Summary
30-60 cm recent storm snow may have been shifted into wind slabs on slopes lee to recent south-west through north-west winds. Fragile cornices can be found in some areas. Sun crusts or moist snow may be found on solar aspects and a firm or breakable temperature crust may be found below about 1700 m.
Several persistent weak layers make up a troublesome snowpack which is not tolerating the recent load. In the top 1-2 m of the snowpack, two surface hoar/ crust layers buried in January can be found. Expect to find one or other of these on all aspects and elevations.
Deeper in the snowpack (around 200 cm deep) is a facet/crust/surface hoar layer from December, most prevalent at and below treeline.
Near the base of the snowpack is a crust/facet combo, most likely to be triggered from thin spots in the alpine.
All of these layers have produced large avalanches recently. The wide distribution and ongoing reactivity of these layers suggests that avoidance through choosing simple terrain is the best strategy.
Weather Forecast
MONDAY: Mainly sunny, with increasing clouds late in the day. Light winds. Treeline temperature near -10.
TUESDAY: 5-10 cm snow. Moderate westerly winds. Treeline temperature near -5.
WEDNESDAY: Flurries. Light winds. Treeline temperature near -8.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
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Several troublesome layers exist in the snowpack. Although the likelihood of triggering a persistent slab has gone down, the consequences remain very high.