Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Feb 8, 2018 - 4:37 PM

Valid until

Feb 9, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

The new snow at higher elevations may become reactive with the first hit of sunshine. Natural slab and loose dry avalanches are likely.

Regular season
Thursday - February 8, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - February 9, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - February 10, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Touchy storm slabs exist, especially on leeward slopes where more wind loading has occurred.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent snowfall and strong winds have created large fragile cornices. Cornices are unpredictable and demand respect. Give them a wide berth from above and below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on slopes below.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, several loose wet avalanches and glide releases up to size 2.5 were reported from the the southern part of the region. No new reports from the north.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snowfall totals are highly variable. In the south, up to 40 cm of new snow fell bringing the alpine totals up to 60 cm since the weekend. In the north, new snow totals are half that and rapidly decreasing below 1800m. This new snow sits on old wind slabs in alpine locations and has buried a crust at treeline. At lower treeline and below elevations, warm temperatures and rain have saturated the upper snowpack. A solid surface crust will likely form with forecast cooler temperatures.

This new snow adds to the 80-150 cm mid pack that sits above the mid- January crust, which generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, I would remain suspect of this deeper layer as the snowpack adjusts to the new load. Large, looming cornices exist, they are fragile and demand respect.

Weather Forecast

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with alpine temperatures near -7 and freezing levels dropping to valley bottom. Ridgetop winds light from the northeast.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Alpine temperatures near -5 and freezing levels at valley bottom. Ridgetop winds light from the West.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures -8 and freezing levels rising to 800 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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