Date issued

Feb 8, 2018 - 1:36 PM

Valid until

Feb 9, 2018 - 8:00 AM

Prepared by

mark herbison

Avoid avalanche terrain.

A natural cycle is producing results up to size 3.5 and running into valley bottoms.

Regular season
Wednesday - February 7, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Thursday - February 8, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - February 9, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Another 40cm overnight adds to our storm slab which has reached its critical load. The storm slab will need some time to adjust, settle out and stabilize.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The Jan 16th, 4th and Dec 15th surface hoar layers have been quiet recently but may reawaken given a large trigger such as a storm slab avalanche or cornice fall.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Avalanche Problem 3: Loose Dry

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Rapid snowfall, with 40cm of low density overnight will be easy to get moving in steep terrain. Both natural and skier triggered sluffing can be expected today.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.
  • Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous size 2 - 2.5 natural avalanches seen along the highway corridor yesterday.

Sluff was moving fast and traveling far in steep trees yesterday but had no slab properties.

Artillery avalanche control is producing numerous large avalanches up to size 3.5 (possibly 4.0) which have buried the highway in several locations.

Snowpack Summary

40cm of low density snow overnight adds to the weekly total of 155cm, with a two week total of 270cm. The mid Dec and Jan persistent weak layers are now buried 150-200cm in the snowpack with a height of snow of 350cm at 1900m. Expect to find reactive storm slab and pockets of wind slab above tree line into the alpine.

Weather Forecast

Though I won't be skiing today I still managed to get face shots while driving to work with 40cm on the closed highway.

Light snow for today, 15km/hr gusting to 70km/hr winds from the east and temps to remain around -3. Tomorrow will mark the start of a prolonged high pressure system, temps and wind will drop and the skies will clear.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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