Avalanche Forecast
South Rockies
Heavy snowfall and strong wind are forecasted for Wednesday night into Thursday. Choose conservative, well-supported terrain and avoid overhead hazards such as large slopes and cornices. Large avalanches have run long distances in recent days.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
- Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
- If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Avalanche Problem 2: Deep Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Several deeply buried weak layers have the potential to produce large avalanches reaching run out zones. Cornices have been a recent trigger for very large avalanches. Avoid shallow rocky snowpack areas where human triggering may also be possible.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.
- Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.
- Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday naturally triggered, deep persistent slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported in the Alexander Creek Drainage. The suspected failure layers were mid-December or late-November layers near the base of the snowpack.
On Monday ski cuts in the Castle area produced numerous small (size 1) wind slab results on freshly wind-loaded features.
On Saturday in the neighboring Lizard Range, the east facing Mt. Corrigan slide path produced a very large natural avalanche estimated to be a size 4.0, which took out mature timber in the path as it overran the Flathead FSR south of Corbin.
Reports are limited, but there was also an explosive triggered wind slab avalanche east of the divide on Saturday. There was likely natural wind slab activity in the northeast part of the region where the heaviest accumulations occurred.
Last Friday, a snowmobiler was partially buried by a size 2 avalanche in the Alexander Creek drainage. The avalanche occurred on a north aspect around 2000 m and failed on weak snow near the ground. A few small wind slabs were triggered by skiers in lee terrain on Thursday and Friday.
Snowpack Summary
An upslope storm has delivered lots of cold low density snow east of the divide since the weekend (20-40 cm). The distribution of new snow is highly variable, and so are the surface snow conditions. The western parts of the region in BC were relatively warm with less snow, while areas in Alberta and around the divide were much colder and windier which has formed wind slabs in open terrain.
The lower snowpack in this region is weak, with a number of concerning weak layers. A layer buried mid-January is composed of surface hoar on sheltered aspects and a sun crust on solar aspects is now 60-80 cm deep. Another surface hoar layer from early-January is buried 70-90 cm deep. A widespread weak layer from mid-December composed of facets, crusts, and surface hoar is 100-150 cm deep. Finally, a rain crust with sugary facets buried in late-November is near the bottom of the snowpack. Although the snowpack structure is variable across the region, these persistent weak layers are generally widespread.
Weather Forecast
TONIGHT: Snow. Accumulation 20-30 cm. Ridge wind strong, southwest. Temperature -6. Freezing level valley bottom.
THURSDAY: Snow. Accumulation 10-20 cm. Ridge wind light, east. Temperature -17. Freezing level valley bottom.
FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light, north. Temperature -15. Freezing level valley bottom.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Ridge wind light to moderate, west. Temperature -10. Freezing level valley bottom.
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New snow and strong wind will add to recently formed touchy slabs, especially at higher elevations and in wind-exposed terrain. Snowfall amounts have varied across the region so some areas may have extra thick and touchy storm slabs.