Avalanche Forecast

Kootenay Boundary

Date issued

Feb 6, 2018 - 5:13 PM

Valid until

Feb 7, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

Forecast snow amounts vary through the region. If your local riding area receives less then 25 cm of new snow please consider the danger rating to be CONSIDERABLE on Wednesday.

Regular season
Tuesday - February 6, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - February 7, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - February 8, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm slabs will continue to build and be reactive with forecast new snow and strong winds.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The snowpack is complex and continues to produce very large avalanches on several weak layers buried 80 to 150 cm below the surface. Moderate-angled, simple terrain selection remains critical to safe mountain travel.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Good day to make conservative terrain choices.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity is ongoing through the region. On Monday, several natural storm slab avalanches and skier triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported. These avalanches were mostly seen from NNE-E aspects above 1900 m. There was one deep persistent slab that pulled as a natural size 3.5. It ran full path to a historical run-out through 15 m worth of mature timber. This was reported from a east aspect at 2100-2300 m, running 900 m in length and up to 400 m wide.

Looking forward with forecast snow and wind, expect newly formed storm slabs and the persistent slabs beneath them to remain reactive to human triggers with the potential for very large and destructive avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow totals vary from 25-50 cm and the winds created reactive wind slabs at tree line and above. Forecast storm snow amounts vary but the region will see significant amounts by Thursday, adding stress to the underlying and very complex snowpack.

Deeper in the snowpack, surface hoar and/or a crust from mid-January is buried beneath all the storm snow at 90-120cm deep. This interface has been reactive and this interface remains a concern. Below this layer lies a second crust/surface hoar interface buried early-January that is now 120-140 cm deep. Recent avalanches have stepped down to this layer and it should remain on your radar.

The mid-December surface hoar layer is buried 130-170 cm below the surface. This layer has continued to produce step down releases and "sudden" test results. It is most pronounced at tree line and below treeline and has remains reactive especially in steeper, unsupported convex terrain features.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Snow amounts 10-15 cm with alpine temperatures near -4. Ridgetop winds moderate from the west and freezing levels near 1500 m.

Thursday: Snow amounts up to 30 cm accompanied by strong west winds. Freezing levels near 1500 m.

Friday: mix of sun and cloud with freezing levels falling to valley bottom. Alpine temperatures near -12.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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