Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Feb 5, 2018 - 4:13 PM

Valid until

Feb 6, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

Warm temperatures and rain have created difficult riding conditions: heavy down low and icy/crusty up high.

Regular season
Monday - February 5, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - February 6, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - February 7, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Large cornices formed a week ago and they may remain fragile. These monsters could surprise with nasty consequences. Use extra caution around ridge crests.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Falling cornices may trigger avalanches on slopes below.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Rain and warm temperatures throughout the weekend saturated the upper snowpack.

At treeline and below, approximately 20cm of wet snow overlies either a crust or moist snow from Monday's rain event a week ago. In high alpine areas like Sky Pilot and the Chehalis Range the more recent (saturated) snow has refrozen into a solid crust.

The mid and lower snowpack are well consolidated with no significant layers of concern.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Flurries (5 cm of snow possible) / Light north west winds / Freezing level 1000m

Wednesday: 5-15mm of rain / Light southwest winds / Freezing level 1000m rising to 2000m by noon

Thursday: Wet flurries (5-10cm snow) or rain / Light westerly winds / Freezing level near 2000m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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