Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Feb 5, 2018 - 4:34 PM

Valid until

Feb 6, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

New snow totals are uncertain in this weather pattern. Wind slabs and cornices are reactive to human triggers: Give both a wide berth and avoid overhead hazard.

Regular season
Monday - February 5, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - February 6, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - February 7, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong south east through west winds have created touchy soft slabs at exposed locations in the upper tree line and alpine elevation bands.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the snow has a chance to stabilize.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent snowfall and strong winds have created fragile new cornices. These monsters may surprise with nasty consequences. Use extra caution around ridge crests.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on slopes below.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday in the north of the region, skiers triggered a size 2 wind slab avalanche on a north east facing slope near 2050m. See the MIN report for more information.

Also on Saturday in the Duffey zone, we had reports of a cornice-triggered size 3 wind slab on a north east facing slope near 2100m. See the MIN report for more information.

On Wednesday in the Duffey area, explosives control triggered a size 2.5 and 2 size 3 persistent slab avalanches in north-facing alpine terrain. The early January crust was the culprit in all 3 of these avalanches. More alarming was a skier-triggered size 3 slab avalanche in the Birkenhead Lake area on the same day. The avalanche was triggered on a northwest facing slope at 2200m, was about 120cm deep and ran a distance of approximately 400m. Nobody was injured in the event. These avalanches demonstrate that you may be dealing with more than just the most recent storm snow in this part of the region.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snowfall totals are highly variable. In the south, up to 40cm of snow fell in the alpine over the past two days, while tree line elevations saw 10-20cm and temperatures near 0 degrees on Monday afternoon. In the north, new snow totals were 15-20cm in the alpine, and rapidly decreasing below 1800m.

In the alpine, winds were moderate to strong from the south / east (Coquihalla) and moderate from the south / west (Duffey zone), creating fresh wind slabs in exposed down wind (lee) terrain. At lower treeline and below, warm temperatures (and rain in many locations) have created heavy snow and tough riding conditions.

The new snow adds to the 80-150cm of snow that fell during the last few weeks of January. These series of storms were accompanied by strong to extreme winds which resulted in extensive scouring and impressive cornice growth in upper elevation terrain. These accumulations sit on crusts from early and mid-January which generally show signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, they been sensitive to skier triggering in at last one recent avalanche in the north of the region (see Avalanche Activity Discussion for details).

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Cloudy with flurries (10cm snow in the south and 5 cm in the north) / Moderate west winds / Freezing level near 1100m.

Wednesday: 5-20 cm of snow above 1500m in the south and up to 5-10 cm possible in the north / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level rising to 2000m in the afternoon.

Thursday: 5-20 cm snow above 1000m in the south and 0-5 cm in the north / Light to moderate westerly winds / Freezing level at 1300m

Note: Forecast precipitation amounts are uncertain in the south (Coquihalla) for the Wednesday-Thursday storm.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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