Avalanche Forecast

Sea To Sky

Date issued

Feb 4, 2018 - 4:46 PM

Valid until

Feb 5, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

Wind slabs and cornices are the main concerns right now: Give both a wide berth and limit your exposure to overhead hazard.

Regular season
Sunday - February 4, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - February 5, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - February 6, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent winds have created pockets of reactive soft slab below ridge crests and on immediate down wind (lee) features at higher elevations.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Heavy snowfall and high winds a week ago formed fragile cornices. These monsters may surprise with nasty consequences. Use extra caution around ridge crests.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
  • Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, ski cutting produced several size 1 to 1.5 soft slabs on immediate down wind (lee) features. Expect wind slabs to remain reactive to human triggers as winds continue to be moderate to strong with small amounts of new snow available for transport. 

On Saturday we received reports of a skier triggered size 1.5 avalanche near Whistler on a north west aspect around 2100m.

Snowpack Summary

Over the past two days 7-12 cm of new snow has fallen. Temperatures were steady near +1 at tree line on Sunday afternoon. Winds, however, have been consistently strong from the south, creating fresh wind slabs in exposed downwind (lee) terrain. At lower treeline and below, generally light amounts of snow or rain now overlie a melt-freeze crust which formed during Monday's warm storm from a week ago.

The new snow adds to the 170cm of snow that fell during the last few weeks of January. These series of storms were accompanied by strong to extreme winds which resulted in extensive scouring and impressive cornice growth in upper elevation terrain. These accumulations sit on a crust from mid-January which generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, it has the potential to "wake-up" with a large trigger such as a cornice fall.

Below this, the snowpack is thought to be generally strong and well-settled.

Weather Forecast

Monday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries (up to 5 cm possible) / Light to moderate north westerly winds / Freezing level at 1200m

Tuesday: Isolated flurries (5cm possible) / Light to moderate south westerly winds / Freezing level 1000m.

Wednesday: 5-10cm of snow / Moderate gusting strong west winds / Freezing level at 1600m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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