Avalanche Forecast
South Coast Inland
New snow totals are uncertain in this weather pattern. Danger ratings are based on higher snowfall amounts. Rain is forecast at tree line and below on Sunday, potentially adding a wet loose avalanche problem.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the snow has a chance to stabilize.
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
- Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Recent heavy snowfall and strong winds have created fragile new cornices. These monsters may surprise with nasty consequences. Use extra caution around ridge crests.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on slopes below.
- Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, several wet loose avalanches to size 3 were reported in the south (Coquihalla) which saw rain up to ridge crests until the afternoon.
On Friday wind slabs to size 2 were reported in down wind terrain at upper elevations. In the Coquihalla area, skiers intentionally triggered several small wind slabs between 1600m and 1900m on south aspects. See this MIN report for more details.
On Wednesday in the Duffey area, explosives control triggered a size 2.5 and 2 size 3 persistent slab avalanches in north-facing alpine terrain. The early January crust was the culprit in all 3 of these avalanches. More alarming was a skier-triggered size 3 slab avalanche in the Birkenhead Lake area on the same day. The avalanche was triggered on a northwest facing slope at 2200m, was about 120cm deep and ran a distance of approximately 400m. Nobody was injured in the event. These avalanches demonstrate that you may be dealing with more than just the most recent storm snow in this part of the region.
Snowpack Summary
7-12 cm of new snow has fallen near tree line in the past two days. Temperatures warmed up to near 0 degrees at tree line and it was raining at Coquihalla Pass on Saturday afternoon. In the alpine, winds were moderate to strong from the west, creating soft wind slabs in exposed down wind (lee) terrain. At lower treeline and below, warm temperatures (and rain in many locations) have created heavy snow and tough riding conditions.
The new snow adds to the 80-150cm of snow that fell during the last few weeks of January. These series of storms were accompanied by strong to extreme winds which resulted in extensive scouring and impressive cornice growth in upper elevation terrain. These accumulations sit on a crust from mid-January which generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, it has been sensitive to skier triggering in at last one recent avalanche in the north of the region (see Avalanche Activity Discussion for details).
Below this crust lies another widespread crust which was buried at the beginning of January. This crust is thought to be generally gaining strength but has continued to show reactivity in the Duffey area.
Weather Forecast
Saturday overnight into Sunday: 5-15 cm of new snow above 1300m
Sunday: 5-15 cm of snow above 1500m / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level spiking to 2300m in the afternoon.
Monday: 5-15cm of new snow / light to moderate westerly winds / Freezing level at 1400m
Tuesday:5-10cm snow / Moderate south west winds / Freezing level at 1600m.
Note: Confidence is low for forecast precipitation amounts on Sunday.
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Strong westerly winds have created touchy wind slabs at exposed locations in the upper tree line and alpine elevation bands. Wet loose avalanches are possible at tree line and below if precipitation falls as heavy rain.