Avalanche Forecast
South Coast Inland
Danger ratings are for the south of the region (Coquihalla) based on heavy snowfall amounts. If you see more than 30cm of new snow the danger is HIGH. The north of the region (Duffey zone) will be at least one step lower with less forecast snow.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
- Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the snow has a chance to stabilize.
Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Recent heavy snowfall and strong winds have created fragile new cornices. These monsters may surprise with nasty consequences. Use extra caution around ridge crests.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges
- Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Summary
On Friday wind slabs to size 2 were reported in down wind (northerly) terrain at upper elevations.
On Wednesday in the Duffey area, explosives control triggered a size 2.5 and 2 size 3 persistent slab avalanches in north-facing alpine terrain. The early January crust was the culprit in all 3 of these avalanches. More alarming was a skier-triggered size 3 slab avalanche in the Birkenhead Lake area on the same day. The avalanche was triggered on a northwest facing slope at 2200m, was about 120cm deep and ran a distance of approximately 400m. Nobody was injured in the event. These avalanches demonstrate that you may be dealing with more than just the most recent storm snow in this part of the region.
Looking forward, wind on Friday is expected to promote a new round of wind slab activity in higher elevation lee terrain.
Snowpack Summary
5-7 cm of new snow fell Thursday overnight into Friday. Temperatures warmed up to near 0 degrees at tree line and it was raining at Coquihalla Pass on Friday afternoon. In the alpine, winds were moderate to strong from the west in the Duffey zone, creating soft wind slabs in exposed down wind (lee) terrain. At lower treeline and below, warm temperatures (and rain in many locations) have created heavy snow and tough riding conditions.
The new snow adds to the 80-150cm of snow that fell during the last few weeks of January. These series of storms were accompanied by strong to extreme winds which resulted in extensive scouring and impressive cornice growth in upper elevation terrain. These accumulations sit on a crust from mid-January which generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, it has been sensitive to skier triggering in at last one recent avalanche in the north of the region (see Avalanche Activity Discussion for details).
Below this crust lies another widespread crust which was buried at the beginning of January. This crust is thought to be generally gaining strength but has continued to show reactivity in the Duffey area.
Weather Forecast
Saturday: IN THE SOUTH (Coquihalla) 15-30cm Friday overnight into Saturday with another 20cm possible during the day / Moderate south west winds / Freezing level at 1200m.
IN THE NORTH (Duffey Lake) 5-10cm Friday overnight into Saturday with another 5-10cm possible during the day / Moderate south west winds / Freezing level at 1400m.
Sunday: 10-25cm of new snow / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 1400m
Monday: 10-15cm of new snow / light to moderate westerly winds / Freezing level at 1400m
Note: Confidence is low for forecast precipitation amounts on Saturday and Sunday.
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The south of the region (Coquihalla) could see incredible snowfall amounts (40-65cm) by Sunday afternoon... BUT there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. The north of the region (Duffey) will have primarily a wind slab problem higher up.