Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Inland

Date issued

Feb 1, 2018 - 4:14 PM

Valid until

Feb 2, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

shorton

Heavy accumulations are possible as an Arctic front sits over the region. Be prepared to dial back your terrain choices.

Regular season
Friday - February 2, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - February 3, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - February 4, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and wind will form fresh wind slabs in higher elevation lee terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Weak layers buried 30-80 cm below the surface have produced some recent avalanches, particularly on unsupported features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Evaluate unsupported slopes critically.
  • Avoid shallow or thick to thin snowpack areas where triggering a deeper layer is more likely.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, evidence of recent natural activity was reported in various parts of the region. Activity included storm slabs up to size 2 on all aspects and dry loose avalanches in steep terrain. On Tuesday, a small storm slab (size 1.5) was triggered by a skier on a southwest aspect at 1250 m.

Some persistent slab activity has been reported on the December weak layer over the past few days as well. Several naturally-triggered size 2 persistent slab avalanches failed naturally at 1200 m in the Howsons on Tuesday. A large naturally-triggered size 3 persistent slab avalanche was reported on an east aspect at 1900 m in the Howsons on Monday. Two large remotely triggered avalanches (size 2.5) were reported on north and west aspects around 1600 m north of Kispiox late last week.

Snowpack Summary

Strong winds have built wind slabs in exposed terrain. 30-60 cm of snow lies over a crust and/or weak feathery surface hoar layer buried in mid-January. The crust exists well into the alpine and the surface hoar can be found in sheltered areas in the lower alpine and treeline elevations.

Another two crust / surface hoar layers that formed in December are buried 50-80 cm below the surface. These layers produced sudden results in recent snowpack tests and have been the suspected weak layer in recent large remotely (from a distance) triggered avalanches.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Flurries with accumulations of 5-10 cm / strong west wind / alpine temperatures around -12 C.

SATURDAY: Another 5-15 cm of snow / moderate to strong west wind / alpine temperatures around -12 C.

SUNDAY: Another 15-30 cm of snow / moderate to strong west wind / alpine temperatures around -10 C.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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