Avalanche Forecast
South Coast
Avalanche danger will rise in sync with new snow accumulations. Watch for both to increase over the day on Wednesday.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
- Evaluate unsupported slopes critically.
Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Recent heavy snowfall and high winds have created fragile new cornice growth.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
- Falling cornices may trigger avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from Saturday included one MIN submission detailing a near miss incident involving several members of a ski touring party on Hollyburn Mountain. Two skiers were partially buried and one was fully buried in a large storm slab that released from a steeper pitch below treeline. Please see the MIN submission for details. Other MIN reports from the region over the past two days have shown ski cutting easily producing storm slab results at the depth of each day's accumulations.
Looking forward, areas that experienced heavy rain should see the snowpack quickly stabilize as temperatures cool. With that said, new snow that accumulates on this refreezing surface will likely form unstable new storm slabs before the new snow has a chance to form a solid bond. High alpine areas that haven't seen rain are on a different trajectory. Here, recently formed storm slabs will need more time to stabilize as they experience continued loading from new snow and wind.
Snowpack Summary
Light new snow amounts have begun to accummulate on the refrozen snow surface after heavy rainfall soaked the upper snowpack at most elevations over Sunday night and Monday. High alpine elevations in areas like Sky Pilot and the Chehalis Range may have seen thick new storm slabs develop over the same time period. Below these elevation-dependant surface conditions, storm snow totals from the past week reached 110-180 cm. The crust that exists beneath these recent snow accumulations is expected to have formed a solid bond to the overlying snow.
Weather Forecast
Wednesday: Cloudy with flurries bringing approximately 5 cm of new snow, increasing overnight. Light to moderate south winds. Freezing level to 600 metres with alpine temperatures around -4.
Thursday: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing approximately 5cm of new snow over the day, increasing overnight. Light to moderate southwest winds, increasing overnight. Freezing level to 800 metres with alpine temperatures of -3.
Friday: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing approximately 5 cm of new snow to high elevations. Light rain below about 1000 metres. Moderate southwest winds. Freezing level to 1500 metres with alpine temperatures around -1 to 0.
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Recent heavy snowfall and strong winds formed thick storm slabs in high alpine terrain. They should be on a stabilizing trend, but may remain reactive to human triggering in steep, unsupported terrain and convex features.