Avalanche Forecast
Avalanche Bulletin - Glacier National Park
With heavy snowfall and warming temps today expect a reactive storm slab and natural activity.
Naturals will run far, avoid overhead hazard and stay out of avalanche runouts!
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
- If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Persistent weak layers present a lower likelihood / high consequence scenario with the Jan 16th, 4th &Dec 15th surface hoar layers buried deep. These layers could be overloaded and reach their tipping point with today's warming and heavy snowfall
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.
- Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Avalanche Summary
There was a skier triggered a size 2 on Saturday, see Avalanche Canada Mountain Information Network (MIN) for more details. During the overnight period there was a natural cycle to size 3 with debris running well into runouts. With additional precip in the next 24 hrs, expect avalanches to continue to run full path in areas like Connaught Crk
Snowpack Summary
13cm in past 24hrs, 60cm of settling storm snow with 160cm of snow accumulation over the past two weeks. Expect to find pockets of wind slab along ridge lines and lee features due to the moderate south winds in the Alpine. The Jan 16 surface hoar is down ~60cm, Jan 4 down ~80cm and Dec 15 down ~1m+ making for a complex sandwich of weak layers.
Weather Forecast
The storm pattern continues and we will see heavy snowfall accumulations the next 36 hrs. Today will be overcast with 15-20cms of snow accumulation. Ridge wind will be 25-40 km/hr from the SW and freezing level will climb to 1700m. Tonight we could see another 20 cm of snowfall with wind gusts to 85 km/hr
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Heavy snowfall and warming temperatures will create a reactive storm slab. If triggered, the slab could step down to deeper weak layers. With steady snowfall accumulation in the last week expect to see avalanches gaining mass and running far.