Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Jan 27, 2018 - 3:00 PM

Valid until

Jan 28, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jsmith

Natural avalanche cycle expected on Sunday. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Regular season
Sunday - January 28, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Monday - January 29, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - January 30, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow, strong winds, and rising temperatures will create fresh storm slabs reactive human triggers

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and time of day.
  • The new snow will need time to settle and stabilize.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Large amounts of recent new snow and high winds are creating rapid cornice growth.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported in this region on Friday. However, a natural avalanche cycle is expected to begin Saturday with the incoming storm.

Snowpack Summary

15-25cm of new snow is being redistributed by strong southwesterly ridgetop winds creating fresh storm slabs reactive to human triggers. Below the most recent storm snow there is a crust at treeline and below. The reactivity of the new storm slabs is likely to vary greatly depending on elevation/ temperature and orientation to wind. In general, I would expect the touchiest conditions to exist in exposed, higher elevation terrain.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: 40-60 mm of rain (snow above roughly 1500m) / Strong to extreme southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level rapidly rising to around 1800m.

MONDAY: 60-80 mm of rain (snow above roughly 1500m) / Strong to extreme southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 1800m.

TUESDAY: 10-15 cm of new snow / Moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level dropping to around 800m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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