Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Jan 25, 2018 - 5:29 PM

Valid until

Jan 26, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jsmith

Recently formed storm slabs are expected to remain reactive to human triggers, especially in wind effected areas at treeline and above.

Regular season
Thursday - January 25, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - January 26, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - January 27, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and wind continue to build storm slabs reactive to human triggers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • The new snow may require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Avalanche Summary

Two size 1.5-2 naturally triggered wind slabs were reported on west, northwest aspects in this region on Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of new snow on Thursday morning brings recent storm totals to 60-90cm. Moderate southerly winds continue to redistribute the new snow. Last weekend's strong to extreme southeasterly ridgetop winds likely created dense storm slabs lurking in lee and cross-loaded features at treeline and above.

90-120cm below the surface you'll likely find a few crusts that were buried during the first few weeks of January. Due to limited observations, not much is known about the current reactivity of these layers.

The lower snowpack includes the mid-December crust layer. I'd expect an improving bond at this interface; however, the load of the new snow may tip the balance and reactivate this layer in isolated terrain - particularly in the north of the region where it's shown prolonged reactivity in snowpack tests.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with flurries / Light southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 500m.

SATURDAY: 5-10 cm of new snow / Moderate to strong southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 700m.

SUNDAY: 10-20 cm of new snow / Strong southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level rapidly rising to around 1800m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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