Avalanche Forecast

Sea To Sky

Date issued

Jan 24, 2018 - 4:46 PM

Valid until

Jan 25, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jsmith

New snow and wind are creating deeper and increasingly destructive storm slabs ripe for human triggering. Sticking to simple terrain would be a great way to manage the elevated hazard on Thursday.

Regular season
Wednesday - January 24, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - January 25, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - January 26, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Forecast new snow and wind on Wednesday night are expected to continue to create touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.
  • The new snow will take time to settle and stabilize.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Large amounts of recent new snow and high winds are creating rapid cornice growth.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, a natural size 2.5 storm slab avalanche was reported near Whistler. It was reported as being about a day old and no further information was reported.

Looking forward, forecast snow and wind will promote ongoing surface storm slab avalanche activity, while surprisingly deep releases within (or at the base of all of the recent storm) snow may be possible in isolated terrain.

Snowpack Summary

The region has been pummeled by heavy snowfall and extreme southerly winds. 20 cm of new snow on Wednesday morning continues to be redistributed by strong southeasterly winds. Last weekend's storm likely created dense storm slabs lurking in lee and cross-loaded features. Impressive cornice growth is also expected to have occurred.

About 180cm below the surface you'll find a crust that was buried mid-January and is present at all elevations. This crust is thin on northerly aspects and up to 3 cm thick on solar aspects. Most reports suggest an improving bond at this interface, but the load of the new snow may tip the balance and reactivate this layer in isolated terrain. Below this, the snowpack is generally strong and well-settled.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 10-20cm of new snow / Moderate to strong southerly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 500m.

THURSDAY: 10-20cm of new snow / Moderate to strong southerly ridgetop winds / Freezing level dropping to 700m.

FRIDAY: 5-10cm of new snow / Light to moderate southerly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 500m.

SATURDAY: 5-10 cm of new snow / Moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 500m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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