Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
Storm slab problems remain the primary concern, but persistent slab problems are unfortunately alive and well. Keep factoring the possibility for large avalanches from isolated features into your terrain selection.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- If triggered, storm slabs may step down to deeper layers and result in large avalanches.
- Southwest winds will likely form thicker, more sensitive slabs on northeast aspects.
- Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of unstable snowpack.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Avalanche activity on deeply buried weak layers has become increasingly sporadic, but very large avalanches continue to run naturally and with the right trigger. Resist the urge to rush into bigger terrain before persistent slabs become unreactive.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid lingering or regrouping in runout zones.
- Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from Monday included seven deep persistent slabs that were released with small explosives in the alpine in the Fernie area. Sizes ranged from 2.5-3, crown depths averaged about 2 metres and all results indicated the deeply buried late November crust as the failure plane. These results demonstrate the need for ongoing vigilance with regard to overhead hazards and the ongoing potential for deep, destructive avalanches to occur.
Saturday's reports showed explosives control in the Fernie area producing numerous storm slabs from Size 1.5-2.5. One skier triggered Size 2 was also recorded. This activity was observed above 1700 m on all but southwest aspects. Two observations of naturally triggered persistent slabs (Size 2 and Size 3) in the Fernie were also reported.
Reports from Friday included both natural and explosives triggered storm slabs from Size 1.5-3 in the Fernie area. The Size 3 was a natural, cornice-triggered slide that failed to step down to any deeper persistent weakness. All of these occurrences were focused on north to east aspects and slab depths ranged from 20-40 cm.
Snowpack Summary
About 40 cm of new snow has buried a new layer of feathery surface hoar on sheltered aspects (especially prominent from 1400-1900 m) as well as sun crust on solar aspects. Moderate to strong winds have been encouraging slab formation over this interface at higher elevations and continuously loading loose snow into deeper slabs in lee areas. The winds have also been also building up cornices along ridges. A thin rain crust may be present about 15cm below the snow surface at 1800 m and lower. This crust likely forms the new snow interface at lower elevations.
Beneath the new snow, a number of buried weak layers have been very concerning over the past couple of weeks. A layer of surface hoar from early January is around 60 cm below the surface and the unstable weak layer from mid-December (predominantly surface hoar and/or a sun crust) is around 100 cm below the surface at treeline and below treeline elevations. A rain crust with sugary facets that developed late-November is near the bottom of the snowpack. All of these layers produced large, destructive avalanches in the last two weeks. Recent observations suggest that reactivity at these layers remains a real concern.
Weather Forecast
Tuesday: Cloudy with scattered flurries and a trace to 5 cm of new snow, increasing overnight. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level near valley bottom with alpine high temperatures around -5.
Wednesday: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 2-15 cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level rising to 1500 metres with alpine high temperatures of -3.
Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud with lingering isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level to about 1200 metres with alpine high temperatures of -5.
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New snow and sustained southwest winds are driving slab formation at higher elevations. Avoid lowering your guard at lower elevations - especially in openings exposed to wind. Slabs that form here may overlie a touchy layer of surface hoar.