Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Inland

Date issued

Jan 21, 2018 - 4:50 PM

Valid until

Jan 22, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

Avalanche problems vary by elevation. Light new snow and winds continue to drive wind slab formation at higher elevations. Keep your guard up in sheltered areas where slabs may form over touchy surface hoar.

Regular season
Sunday - January 21, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - January 22, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - January 23, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm slabs have formed over widespread temperature crusts and more isolated pockets of surface hoar. Slabs are likely to be touchiest where surface hoar is buried as well as in the immediate lee of ridgecrests and exposed terrain features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Sheltered openings at mid elevations are likely areas for surface hoar to be preserved.
  • Avoid areas where the new snow feels stiff and slabby.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid steep pockets of wind loaded snow.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent reports have shown touchy persistent slab conditions developing at lower elevations in deeper snowpack areas of the region. Avoid the trap of lowering your guard below treeline - especially around steep rolls in sheltered openings.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking at lower elevations.
  • Touchy persistent slab conditions have recently been observed in the Howson Range.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Saturday included one remotely (from a distance) triggered Size 1.5 wind slab releasing from a steeper northwest-facing slope at around 1500 metres. The slab depth was 40-60 cm.

Friday's reports showed a notable increase in persistent slab activity at lower elevations in the Howson Range. In this area, three Size 2 releases failed on steeper terrain with remote triggers on the mid-December weak layer, found 50 cm below the surface. Another report from last week mentioned numerous natural storm slab releases from Size 1-2 north of Kispiox. These were suspected to have released over a layer of surface hoar that may not be widely distributed.

Looking forward, our storm slab problem is diverging into more distinct wind slab problems at higher elevations and more isolated storm slab over surface hoar issues at mid elevations. Lower elevations have become an increasing concern in areas where the upper 50 cm of the snowpack has settled into a slab over the persistent mid-December weak layer.

Snowpack Summary

Recent light snowfalls have gradually brought about 20-30 cm of new snow to the region. The new snow has buried a temperature crust that likely exists well into the alpine. There are also reports of more isolated pockets of surface hoar beneath the new snow at lower alpine and treeline elevations. This surface hoar is noted in our avalanche activity discussion for having produced numerous storm slab releases in a localized area after the storm ended.

Below the new snow interface, deeper weak layers in the snowpack include a few crusts and surface hoar layers that formed in early January and December. Most recent reports suggest the snow is well bonded to these layers, but recent persistent slab activity over a surface hoar and facet 'combo' at low elevations suggests that a dangerous persistent slab problem may be developing as the mid and upper snowpack consolidate into a stiffer slab over this layer.

Weather Forecast

Monday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow, continuing overnight. Light to moderate southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -8.

Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow, continuing overnight. Moderate to strong southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures of -8.

Wednesday: Cloudy with continuing isolated flurries and about 2 cm of new snow. Light to moderate southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures of -7.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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