Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Jan 21, 2018 - 4:07 PM

Valid until

Jan 22, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jlammers

Heavy storm loading throughout the week will keep the avalanche danger at HIGH.

Regular season
Sunday - January 21, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - January 22, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - January 23, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent storm snow and strong winds have formed deep storm slabs. These slabs may be very reactive to skier triggering, particularly in steeper terrain and wind-loaded areas.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • The new snow will need time to settle and stabilize.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported, but that may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. I'm sure there was an impressive round of storm slab activity on Sunday, especially at higher elevations where the snow was colder and winds were stronger. With more snow and wind on the way, that trend should continue throughout the week.

Snowpack Summary

Above 1000m about 80 cm of new snow has fallen with over 100cm of new snow at higher elevations. Strong to extreme winds have redistributed the new snow into deep and dense storm slabs. This storm snow now covers a crust that was buried on January 17th. Below this crust the snowpack is generally strong and well-settled.

Weather Forecast

Monday: 15-25cm of new snow / Moderate westerly winds / Freezing level at 700m

Tuesday: 20-40cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 750m

Wednesday: 40-60cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 1200m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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