Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Jan 21, 2018 - 4:01 PM

Valid until

Jan 22, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jlammers

Continued stormy weather will keep the avalanche danger at HIGH.

Regular season
Sunday - January 21, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - January 22, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - January 23, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and wind have formed reactive new storm slabs throughout the region. Give the new snow a few days to settle and stabilize before venturing into steeper terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.
  • The new snow may require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no new reports of avalanche activity, but that may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. On Sunday, an impressive natural storm slab avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred in response to new snow and wind particularly in the northwest side of the region. With ongoing stormy weather I would expect continued storm slab activity at all elevation bands throughout Tuesday

Snowpack Summary

By Monday morning expect about 30-60 cm of snow to have fallen in the past 48 hours. Thanks to the winds, I would anticipate redistribution of the recent storm snow at all elevation bands with storm slabs lurking in lee and cross-loaded features

Between 40-90cm below the surface you'll likely find the most recent crust that was buried mid-January. This crust exists on almost all aspects and elevations with the exception of northerly aspects above 1850 m and has produced moderate to hard, sudden results in recent snowpack tests.

Beneath this crust the mid and lower snowpack layers including the mid-December and late-November crust layers continue to produce hard, sudden results in snowpack tests in the northern part of the region and may still be a concern for step-down potential.

Weather Forecast

Monday: 5-10cm of new snow / Moderate westerly winds / Freezing level at 700m

Tuesday: 5-10cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 400m

Wednesday: 5-10cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 1000m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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